Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of longitudinal birth cohorts enable joint investigation of environmental and genetic influences on complex traits. We report GWAS results for nine quantitative metabolic traits (triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, glucose, insulin, C-reactive protein, body mass index, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure) in the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (NFBC1966), drawn from the most genetically isolated Finnish regions. We replicate most previously reported associations for these traits and identify nine new associations, several of which highlight genes with metabolic functions: high-density lipoprotein with NR1H3 (LXRA), low-density lipoprotein with AR and FADS1-FADS2, glucose with MTNR1B, and insulin with PANK1. Two of these new associations emerged after adjustment of results for body mass index. Gene-environment interaction analyses suggested additional associations, which will require validation in larger samples. The currently identified loci, together with quantified environmental exposures, explain little of the trait variation in NFBC1966. The association observed between low-density lipoprotein and an infrequent variant in AR suggests the potential of such a cohort for identifying associations with both common, low-impact and rarer, high-impact quantitative trait loci.

The genome-wide association study (GWAS) approach has discovered hundreds of genetic variants associated with diseases and quantitative traits. However, despite clinical overlap and statistical correlation between many phenotypes, GWAS are generally performed one-phenotype-at-a-time. Here we compare the performance of modelling multiple phenotypes jointly with that of the standard univariate approach. We introduce a new method and software, MultiPhen, that models multiple phenotypes simultaneously in a fast and interpretable way. By performing ordinal regression, MultiPhen tests the linear combination of phenotypes most associated with the genotypes at each SNP, and thus potentially captures effects hidden to single phenotype GWAS. We demonstrate via simulation that this approach provides a dramatic increase in power in many scenarios. There is a boost in power for variants that affect multiple phenotypes and for those that affect only one phenotype. While other multivariate methods have similar power gains, we describe several benefits of MultiPhen over these. In particular, we demonstrate that other multivariate methods that assume the genotypes are normally distributed, such as canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and MANOVA, can have highly inflated type-1 error rates when testing case-control or non-normal continuous phenotypes, while MultiPhen produces no such inflation. To test the performance of MultiPhen on real data we applied it to lipid traits in the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (NFBC1966). In these data MultiPhen discovers 21% more independent SNPs with known associations than the standard univariate GWAS approach, while applying MultiPhen in addition to the standard approach provides 37% increased discovery. The most associated linear combinations of the lipids estimated by MultiPhen at the leading SNPs accurately reflect the Friedewald Formula, suggesting that MultiPhen could be used to refine the definition of existing phenotypes or uncover novel heritable phenotypes.

To control for hidden population stratification in genetic-association studies, statistical methods that use marker genotype data to infer population structure have been proposed as a possible alternative to family-based designs. In principle, it is possible to infer population structure from associations between marker loci and from associations of markers with the trait, even when no information about the demographic background of the population is available. In a model in which the total population is formed by admixture between two or more subpopulations, confounding can be estimated and controlled. Current implementations of this approach have limitations, the most serious of which is that they do not allow for uncertainty in estimations of individual admixture proportions or for lack of identifiability of subpopulations in the model. We describe methods that overcome these limitations by a combination of Bayesian and classical approaches, and we demonstrate the methods by using data from three admixed populations--African American, African Caribbean, and Hispanic American--in which there is extreme confounding of trait-genotype associations because the trait under study (skin pigmentation) varies with admixture proportions. In these data sets, as many as one-third of marker loci show crude associations with the trait. Control for confounding by population stratification eliminates these associations, except at loci that are linked to candidate genes for the trait. With only 32 markers informative for ancestry, the efficiency of the analysis is 70%. These methods can deal with both confounding and selection bias in genetic-association studies, making family-based designs unnecessary.

Testing one SNP at a time does not fully realise the potential of genome-wide association studies to identify multiple causal variants, which is a plausible scenario for many complex diseases. We show that simultaneous analysis of the entire set of SNPs from a genome-wide study to identify the subset that best predicts disease outcome is now feasible, thanks to developments in stochastic search methods. We used a Bayesian-inspired penalised maximum likelihood approach in which every SNP can be considered for additive, dominant, and recessive contributions to disease risk. Posterior mode estimates were obtained for regression coefficients that were each assigned a prior with a sharp mode at zero. A non-zero coefficient estimate was interpreted as corresponding to a significant SNP. We investigated two prior distributions and show that the normal-exponential-gamma prior leads to improved SNP selection in comparison with single-SNP tests. We also derived an explicit approximation for type-I error that avoids the need to use permutation procedures. As well as genome-wide analyses, our method is well-suited to fine mapping with very dense SNP sets obtained from re-sequencing and/or imputation. It can accommodate quantitative as well as case-control phenotypes, covariate adjustment, and can be extended to search for interactions. Here, we demonstrate the power and empirical type-I error of our approach using simulated case-control data sets of up to 500 K SNPs, a real genome-wide data set of 300 K SNPs, and a sequence-based dataset, each of which can be analysed in a few hours on a desktop workstation.

Admixture between populations originating on different continents can be exploited to detect disease susceptibility loci at which risk alleles are distributed differentially between these populations. We first examine the statistical power and mapping resolution of this approach in the limiting situation in which gamete admixture and locus ancestry are measured without uncertainty. We show that, for a rare disease, the most efficient design is to study affected individuals only. In a typical African American population (two-way admixture proportions 0.8/0.2, ancestry crossover rate 2 per 100 cM), a study of 800 affected individuals has 90% power to detect at P values <10(-5) a locus that generates a risk ratio of 2 between populations, with an expected mapping resolution (size of 95% confidence region for the position of the locus) of 4 cM. In practice, to infer locus ancestry from marker data requires Bayesian computationally intensive methods, as implemented in the program ADMIXMAP. Affected-only study designs require strong prior information on the frequencies of each allele given locus ancestry. We show how data from unadmixed and admixed populations can be combined to estimate these ancestry-specific allele frequencies within the admixed population under study, allowing for variation between allele frequencies in unadmixed and admixed populations. Using simulated data based on the genetic structure of the African American population, we show that 60% of information can be extracted in a test for linkage using markers with an ancestry information content of 36% at 3-cM spacing. As in classic linkage studies, the most efficient strategy is to use markers at a moderate density for an initial genome search and then to saturate regions of putative linkage with additional markers, to extract nearly all information about locus ancestry.