Abstract. There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.
Abstract. There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has been obtained through two approaches. The first approach is the detection of change based on observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for non-linear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities are discussed again such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.
Abstract. Risk zonation maps are mostly derived from design floods which propagate through the study area. The respective delineation of inundated flood plains is a fundamental input for the flood risk assessment of exposed objects. It is implicitly assumed that the river morphology will not vary, even though it is obvious that the river bed elevation can quickly and drastically change during flood events. The objectives of this study were to integrate the river bed dynamics into the flood risk assessment procedure and to quantify associated uncertainties. The proposed concept was applied to the River Ill in the Western Austrian Alps. In total, 138 flood and associated sediment transport scenarios were considered, simulated and illustrated for the main river stem. The calculated morphological changes of the river bed at the moment of peak flow provided a basis to estimate the variability of possible water surface levels and inundation lines which should be incorporated into flood hazard assessment. In the context of vulnerability assessment an advanced methodological approach to assess flood risk based on damage probability functions is described.
Waste disposal sites are mostly located in lowland areas close to residential areas inducing a long-term risk of potential environmental contamination due to flooding. During recent flood events, these areas were reportedly exposed to inundations. This paper aims to develop a qualitative approach to assess flood risk associated with flood-prone waste disposals at the basis of Austrian case studies. Risk is investigated as a function of the probability of an event and the consequences of that event. The presented assessment approach is characterized as qualitative as consequences are expressed in risk categories but not in expected (monetary) losses. The probability of inundation, the hydrodynamic impacts on considered waste disposal sites and the expected consequences to the environment (potential emissions of hazardous substances) were linked. Derived risk categories from ''minor risk'' to ''serious risk'' were used to express flood risk to environmental goods like groundwater bodies, nature reserves and recreation areas. A screening of 1,064 waste disposals yielded roughly 30% of sites located within or close to flood risk zones. Three representative case study areas were selected and investigated in detail by applying 2D hydrodynamic models to calculate flow depths and shear stress and by developing emission scenarios. The hydrodynamic modelling covered three hydrologic scenarios with statistical recurrence intervals of 30, 100 and 300 years. Derived leaching scenarios ranged from minor emissions up to total erosion of the waste disposal site. Based on four parameters representing flood characteristics, the susceptibility to erosion (flow velocity and shear stress) and the estimated leaching behaviour, a flood risk evaluation matrix (FREM) was elaborated. The study outlines that in case of flooding the hazardous emissions could lead to partly tremendous impacts on environmental goods. Identified uncertainties associated with considered processes were considerably high. However, the developed qualitative approach provides a decision support aid to identify waste disposals with imminent risk for humans and the environment.
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