Most anthropogenic material stocks and flows are associated with the building sector. Several recent studies have developed material composition indicators (MCIs) suitable for calculating material stocks and flows of the building sector using bottom-up approaches, which hold great potential to provide information to support resource efficiency policies. A major limitation is the lack of country-specific MCIs. This study aims to introduce a concept for a better transferability of MCI across different contexts by proposing requirements for defining MCIs and to discuss options and limits of the transferability. We take existing MCIs for residential buildings in Germany and Japan as case studies and make them comparable by applying harmonization methods. Based on that, similarities and differences are systematically identified and discussed, considering their socioeconomic, cultural, technical, and environmental factors. Our results indicate significant limitations to the transferability of MCIs for detached houses, while bigger apartment complexes show greater homogeneity despite the very different environments in which they are constructed. This indicates that while it is possible to assume foreign MCIs as plausible for large constructions, local coefficients need to be estimated for smaller single-family homes. Augiseau and Barles 2016; Moriguchi and Hashimoto 2016; Ortlepp et al. 2016). Bottom-up approaches follow the principle of "multiply[ing] some practical measure of the stock or flow of interest (e.g., m² [of] floor space) by coefficients for characteristic material compositions (MCIs) that describe the relative material content of the considered good" (Ortlepp et al. 2018, 3).Bottom-up approaches offer a high degree of flexibility, paired with the possibility of spatially explicit resolution,
Although most discussions on building stocks assume a static or growing stock over time, this case study highlights the opposite condition of a shrinking population and its potential effects on the building stock. Scenarios to 2050 are presented for the housing stock in eastern and western Germany based on population projections. Due to long-term population decline, the prospect of increasing housing vacancies raises new questions for urban housing stock management, operation and maintenance strategies. In the first years of the new millennium, the demolition rate in eastern Germany increased to 0.5% of the existing stock per year. This rate may need to increase further over the next 40 years to keep the vacancy rate below an average of 15%, which could mean 20-25% in multiple-dwelling units. With 25 years' delay, western Germany will enter a similar development stream also due to population shrinkage. Spatial disparities of shrinking population patterns will require a critical revision of public policy. Reconciling environmental objectives to preserve old stocks, reduce demolition rates, and reduce material flows will need to be balanced with demographic, social and economic concerns. This will impact on the current interpretations of sustainable development and suggests that regional circumstances will need to be incorporated into the evolving definition.Bien que la plupart des discussions relatives aux parcs bâ tis supposent un parc stationnaire ou en croissance au fil du temps, cette étude de cas met l'accent sur la situation opposée d'une population décroissante et ses effets potentiels sur le parc bâ ti. Des scénarios jusqu'en 2050 sont présentés pour le parc de logements de l'est et l'ouest de l'Allemagne en se basant sur les projections de population. En raison du déclin à long terme de la population, la perspective d'un accroissement des logements vacants soulève de nouvelles questions quant aux stratégies de gestion, d'exploitation et d'entretien du parc bâ ti urbain. Dans les premières années du nouveau millénaire, le taux de démolition dans l'est de l'Allemagne est passé à 0,5% du parc existant par an. Il faudra peut-être augmenter encore ce taux au cours des 40 prochaines années afin de maintenir le taux de logements vacants en dessous d'une moyenne de 15%, ce qui pourrait signifier 20-25% dans les immeubles d'habitation. Avec un décalage de 25 ans, l'ouest de l'Allemagne entrera dans un flux de développement similaire, également dû à la décroissance de la population. Les disparités spatiales des schémas de décroissance des populations exigeront une révision critique des politiques publiques. Il sera nécessaire de trouver un équilibre permettant de concilier les objectifs environnementaux visant à préserver le parc bâ ti ancien, à réduire les taux de démolition et à diminuer les flux de matériaux avec les préoccupations démographiques, sociales et économiques. Cela aura une incidence sur les interprétations actuelles du développement durable et suggère qu'il faudra intégrer les situations régionales ...
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