River basin rainfall series and extensive river flow records are used to characterize and improve understanding of spatial and temporal variability in sub-Saharan African water resources during the last century. Nine major international river basins were chosen for examination primarily for their extensive, good quality flow records. A range of statistical descriptors highlight the substantial variability in rainfall and river flows [e.g., differences in rainfall (flows) of up to −14% (−51%) between 1931–60 and 1961–90 in West Africa], the marked regional differences, and the modest intraregional differences. On decadal time scales, sub-Saharan Africa exhibits drying across the Sahel after the early 1970s, relative stability punctuated by extreme wet years in East Africa, and periodic behavior underlying high interannual variability in southern Africa. Central Africa shows very modest decadal variability, with some similarities to the Sahel in the adjoining basins. No consistent signals in rainfall and river flows emerge across the whole of the region. An analysis of rainfall–runoff relationships reveals varying behavior including strong but nonstationary relationships (particularly in West Africa); many basins with marked variations (temporal and spatial) in strength; weak, almost random behavior (particularly in southern Africa); and very few strong, temporally stable relationships. Twenty-year running correlations between rainfall and river flow tend to be higher during periods of greater rainfall station density; however, there are situations in which weak (strong) relationships exist even with reasonable (poor) station coverage. The authors conclude for sub-Saharan Africa that robust identification and attribution of hydrological change is severely limited by data availability, conflicting behavior across basins/regions, low signal-to-noise ratios, sometimes weak rainfall–runoff relationships, and limited quantification of the magnitude and effects of land use change.
In this paper, we study the impact of climate change on river regimes in several parts of Africa, and we look at the most probable causes of these changes either climatically or anthropogenically driven. We study time series of updated monthly and annual runoff of rivers of North Africa, West Africa (Sahelian and humid tropical regions) and Central Africa, including the largest river basins: Niger and Volta rivers in West Africa, and Congo and Ogooue rivers in Central Africa. The recent years are studied in the perspective of multi-decadal variability. In West Africa and in a part of Central Africa, the climate has changed since 1970, and rainfall has not returned to previous annual amounts, except in Equatorial Africa. The consequences of the long-lasting drought are, depending on the area concerned, the modification of seasonal regimes (Equatorial area), the groundwater table decrease (Tropical humid area) and the land cover degradation (Sahelian area). The increasing number of dams and of agricultural areas also plays a major role on the modification of river regimes. The population increase will continue to impact on the environment: land cover change, deforestation, agriculture and increasing number of dams will be associated with a reduction of water and sediment discharges to the sea, and major impacts on downstream ecosystems and coastal areas. It seems necessary to share with stakeholders a comprehensive approach of the water cycle from the basin to the sea, to prevent long-lasting damages to ecosystems and infrastructures.
Résumé L'analyse de la variabilité spatio-temporelle de totaux pluviométriques, de débits et de coefficients d'écoulements, aux pas de temps mensuels, saisonniers et annuels dans le sud équatorial du Cameroun, révèle que les pluies et les débits annuels ont diminué lors des années très sèches (1972-1973 et 1983-1984). Le changement climatique le plus significatif réside dans la modification des régimes de pluie des saisons sèches, modifiant le cycle hydrologique annuel. La diminution de la pluviométrie de la saison sèche de Décembre à Février entraîne une baisse des coefficients d'écoulement durant la petite saison des pluies qui suit (Mars-Juin). Inversement, alors que la pluviométrie a peu varié au cours de la saison des pluies de Septembre-Novembre, les écoulements augmentent, probablement du fait que les pluies de la petite saison sèche (Juillet et Août) sont plus élevées depuis quelques décennies. Ceci indique une évolution du climat dans le sudouest du Cameroun, visible également au Gabon et au Congo. Sur le bassin de la Kienké, la disparition progressive de la petite saison sèche de Juillet-Août tend à joindre les deux saisons des pluies en une seule. Abstract Analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall amounts, discharge and runoff coefficients, for monthly, seasonal and annual time steps in equatorial south Cameroon, reveals that annual values of rainfall and discharge have decreased during the years of greatest drought (1972-1973 and 1983-1984). The most significant climatic change is a modification of rainfall regime during the dry seasons, which led to a change in the annual hydrological cycle. The decrease in rainfall during the dry season in December-February generates a decrease in the runoff coefficients during the subsequent short rainy season (March-June). Conversely, although the corresponding rainfall has not changed much during the rainy season in September-November, the discharge has increased, probably due to the fact that rainfall during the short dry season (July and August) has been much higher for several decades. This is assumed to indicate a change in climate in southwest Cameroon, also evident in Gabon and Congo. Over the Kienke basin, the progressive disappearance of the short dry season in July-August has resulted in a tendency for the two rainy seasons to merge into one.
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