IntroductionArtificial Intelligence (AI) methods are being increasingly investigated as a means to generate predictive models applicable in the clinical practice. In this study, we developed a model to predict the efficacy of immunotherapy (IO) in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) using eXplainable AI (XAI) Machine Learning (ML) methods.MethodsWe prospectively collected real-world data from patients with an advanced NSCLC condition receiving immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) either as a single agent or in combination with chemotherapy. With regards to six different outcomes - Disease Control Rate (DCR), Objective Response Rate (ORR), 6 and 24-month Overall Survival (OS6 and OS24), 3-months Progression-Free Survival (PFS3) and Time to Treatment Failure (TTF3) - we evaluated five different classification ML models: CatBoost (CB), Logistic Regression (LR), Neural Network (NN), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). We used the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values to explain model predictions.ResultsOf 480 patients included in the study 407 received immunotherapy and 73 chemo- and immunotherapy. From all the ML models, CB performed the best for OS6 and TTF3, (accuracy 0.83 and 0.81, respectively). CB and LR reached accuracy of 0.75 and 0.73 for the outcome DCR. SHAP for CB demonstrated that the feature that strongly influences models’ prediction for all three outcomes was Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR). Performance Status (ECOG-PS) was an important feature for the outcomes OS6 and TTF3, while PD-L1, Line of IO and chemo-immunotherapy appeared to be more important in predicting DCR.ConclusionsIn this study we developed a ML algorithm based on real-world data, explained by SHAP techniques, and able to accurately predict the efficacy of immunotherapy in sets of NSCLC patients.
BackgroundChemoimmunotherapy represents the standard of care for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) <50%. Although single-agent pembrolizumab has also demonstrated some activity in this setting, no reliable biomarkers yet exist for selecting patients likely to respond to single-agent immunotherapy. The main purpose of the study was to identify potential new biomarkers associated with progression-free-survival (PFS) within a multiomics analysis.MethodsPEOPLE (NTC03447678) was a prospective phase II trial evaluating first-line pembrolizumab in patients with advanced EGFR and ALK wild type treatment-naïve NSCLC with PD-L1 <50%. Circulating immune profiling was performed by determination of absolute cell counts with multiparametric flow cytometry on freshly isolated whole blood samples at baseline and at first radiological evaluation. Gene expression profiling was performed using nCounter PanCancer IO 360 Panel (NanoString) on baseline tissue. Gut bacterial taxonomic abundance was obtained by shotgun metagenomic sequencing of stool samples at baseline. Omics data were analyzed with sequential univariate Cox proportional hazards regression predicting PFS, with Benjamini-Hochberg multiple comparisons correction. Biological features significant with univariate analysis were analyzed with multivariate least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO).ResultsFrom May 2018 to October 2020, 65 patients were enrolled. Median follow-up and PFS were 26.4 and 2.9 months, respectively. LASSO integration analysis, with an optimal lambda of 0.28, showed that peripheral blood natural killer cells/CD56dimCD16+ (HR 0.56, 0.41–0.76, p=0.006) abundance at baseline and non-classical CD14dimCD16+monocytes (HR 0.52, 0.36–0.75, p=0.004), eosinophils (CD15+CD16−) (HR 0.62, 0.44–0.89, p=0.03) and lymphocytes (HR 0.32, 0.19–0.56, p=0.001) after first radiologic evaluation correlated with favorable PFS as well as high baseline expression levels of CD244 (HR 0.74, 0.62–0.87, p=0.05) protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor type C (HR 0.55, 0.38–0.81, p=0.098) and killer cell lectin like receptor B1 (HR 0.76, 0.66–0.89, p=0.05). Interferon-responsive factor 9 and cartilage oligomeric matrix protein genes correlated with unfavorable PFS (HR 3.03, 1.52–6.02, p 0.08 and HR 1.22, 1.08–1.37, p=0.06, corrected). No microbiome features were selected.ConclusionsThis multiomics approach was able to identify immune cell subsets and expression levels of genes associated to PFS in patients with PD-L1 <50% NSCLC treated with first-line pembrolizumab. These preliminary data will be confirmed in the larger multicentric international I3LUNG trial (NCT05537922).Trial registration number2017-002841-31.
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