Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW.
AbstractThis study readdresses the determinants of business cycle synchronisation. We test, on the one hand, whether FDI promoting policies may have consequences for the business cycle comovement between countries, and on the other hand, whether more plausible identification strategies change previous results. Our results suggest that linkages through foreign direct investment contribute in most cases positively to the synchronisation between country pairs. In contrast, the beneficial effects of trade integration for the similarity of business cycles are less robust and thus less important for the transmission of idiosyncratic shocks between countries than previously thought. Finally, we find that larger differences in the sector structure between two economies result in a bigger gap between their business cycles.JEL classification: F21, F41, F44, F49
Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW.
Spillover Effects of Labour Market Reforms in a Three-Country WorldClaudia Fries *
May 2015Abstract I extend the model-based literature on spillover effects of labour market reforms on foreign (un-)employment by allowing for third-country effects. When the workhorse two-country model is enlarged to include a third country, a reform causes an additional indirect effect through a terms-of-trade shift between the foreign countries. To quantify the increase or reduction in the overall spillover by means of this channel, simulations based on empirically realistic scenarios are carried out. Thereby, the indirect effect turns out to be too small to overturn the direct effect or to increase it considerably. Differences in the reform spillover effects between foreign countries are mainly due to differences in characteristics which influence the size of the direct impact.
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