Biodiversity monitoring is important as it allows to prioritize research into the causes of declines and assessing the efficacy of conservation measures. Regional assessments are valuable, because conservation policies and management are often implemented on national and sub-national level. We analyzed data from the German Common Bird Monitoring for 1990–2018. We derived indices of population size using standard log-linear models, based on point counts and route territory mapping at up to 1200 plots annually. We summarized species trends by ecological trait groups. Among the 93 common breeding birds, farmland birds declined strongly, birds of settlements declined. Forest birds initially declined, but recovered after ca. 2010. Wetland birds increased strongly, albeit the number of species with data was low. Consistent declines were found in ground-nesting birds, granivorous and invertebrate (other than insect)-feeding birds. Trends of insectivorous birds were stable on average, but farmland insectivores declined strongly since the year 2000. Long-distance migrants showed more negative trends compared to short-distance migrants and resident species. Species with narrow habitat niche declined disproportionally. Trends over the entire period were more negative in common species in the dataset (with a German breeding population of > 50 K and < 1 M pairs). On the opposite, short-term trends were more negative in less common species (< 50 K pairs). Cold-adapted species showed largely negative, warm-adapted largely positive trends. Multi-species indicators showed no directional change (i.e., a change from decline to increase or vice versa) conditional on the inclusion or omission of single species, but the magnitude of change was affected in groups with low sample size. This suggests that efforts should be made to develop robust monitoring schemes for rarer species that are not covered by the analyses here. We conclude that conservation policies in Germany should aim at halting the worrying declines in ground-nesting, often insectivorous, farmland birds. The recovery of forest and wetland birds is encouraging, but future trends need to be monitored. Ongoing climate change will affect species directly (via their thermal niche) and indirectly (e.g., through more forest disturbance). Conservation strategies will, therefore, need to consider species adaptation to environmental and climate change, e.g., in better protected area connectivity and management.

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The prototype experimental example of "spontaneous" pattern formation in an unstirred chemical medium is the oscillatory Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) reaction: target patterns of outward-moving concentric rings are readily observed when the reaction is run in a thin layer in a Petri dish. In many experimental runs, new target centers appeared to form closer to pre-existing target centers than expected in a randomized model. Here we describe a simple direct test for the presence of temporal order in the spatiotemporal dynamics of target nucleation, and apply this test to detect significant temporal order in target formation in the ferroin-catalyzed BZ reaction. We also describe how mixing heterogeneity can generate temporal order, even in the absence of heterogeneous physical nucleating centers.

Aim: Timely and accurate information on population trends is a prerequisite for effective biodiversity conservation. Structured biodiversity monitoring programmes have been shown to track population trends reliably, but require large financial and time investment. The data assembled in a large and growing number of online databases are less structured and suffer from bias, but the number of observations is much higher compared to structured monitoring programmes. Model-based integration of data from these disparate sources could capitalize on their respective strengths. Location: Germany.Methods: Abundance data for 26 farmland bird species were gathered from the standardized Common Breeding Bird Survey (CBBS) and three online databases that varied with regard to their degree of survey standardization. Population trends were estimated with a benchmark model that included only CBBS data, and five Bayesian hierarchical models integrating all data sources in different combinations. Across models, we compared consistency and precision of the predicted population trends and the accuracy of the models. Bird species body mass, prevalence in the dataset and abundance were tested as potential predictors of the explored quantities.Results: Consistency in predicted annual abundance indices was generally high especially when comparing the benchmark models to the integrated models without unstructured data. The accuracy of the estimated population changes was higher in the hierarchical models compared to the benchmark model but this was not related to data integration. Precision of the predicted population trends increased as more data sources were integrated. Main conclusions:Model-based integration of data from different sources can lead to improved precision of bird population trend estimates. This opens up new opportunities for conservation managers to identify declining populations earlier. Integrating data from online databases could substantially increase sample size and thus allowing to derive trends for currently not well-monitored species, especially at sub-national scales.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.