This paper presents the first step in the development of a new kind of computer-based tool which can help a specialist consultant in avalanche path analysis, a knowledge-based or expert system. In considering an avalanche path, the specialist often needs a simulation of possible avalanches on this path in order to obtain data for probable velocities and pressures. Use of classical numerical tools by an engineer requires a great deal of experience and knowledge. Such knowledge exists, but until the development of knowledge-based systems no computer-based tool was available.After a short review of such systems, we describe a knowledge-based system currently being developed in CEMAGREF. Its problem-solving environment includes methods of analysis developed by a senior consultant, and also numerical and qualitative models. In the first step, which is presented here, it analyses the starting zone of an avalanche path. By means of a digital terrain model and a description of vegetation and main ridges (a model which still needs to be improved) this system can make use of the experience of specialists to produce an avalanche-starting simulation based on specified meteorological conditions. Quite simple rules are employed in order to take into account snow drift. First results are shown on accompanying maps of this qualitative modelling and these will need to be tested for validity.
ABSTRACT. The choice of the best protection system against avalanches on a particular path requires an accurate description, or image, of these avalanches. In order to get this image, avalanche consultants can use several numerical models which are often difficult to handle. Moreover, these models deal only with a part of the phenomena involved in avalanches and ignore the others. As a result, the consultants must use their experience and knowledge to imagine the avalanches on any particular path.This paper presents ELSA (Etude et Limites de Sites Avalancheux), a computer system dedicated to the modelling of the knowledge of avalanche experts and to the integration of the new symbolic computer models with the classical numerical models.The basic aim of integration is to build a unique computer system incorporating all these models.After a description of the terrain representation, we present the differen t scenarios that ELSA takes into account. Then, the methods which deal with some phenomena occurring in avalanches are described. The problems involved in the integration of these methods close this paper.
: This paper attempts to provide a reliable classification of avalanches. After outlining the development of current terminology, the authors draw attention to the fact that usual classifications, which divide avalanches into slab, powder and loose-snow avalanches are rather inconvenient to use and crude. A number of proposals are therefore made for a more reliable classification. Three main groups of avalanches are identified based on the type of flow : aerosol, dense, and mixed avalanches. Analysis of avalanche starting and stopping phases and consideration of the avalanche site provide further criteria for subdividing groups into sub-groups. Genetic factors are found to be helpful in completing descriptions but are to use in classifications.
ENG : expert system! natural hazard! avalanche.
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