To identify colorectal cancer (CRC) susceptibility alleles, we conducted a genome-wide association study. In phase 1, we genotyped 550,163 tagSNPs in 940 familial colorectal tumor cases (627 CRC, 313 high-risk adenoma) and 965 controls. In phase 2, we genotyped 42,708 selected SNPs in 2,873 CRC cases and 2,871 controls. In phase 3, we evaluated 11 SNPs showing association at P < 10(-4) in a joint analysis of phases 1 and 2 in 4,287 CRC cases and 3,743 controls. Two SNPs were taken forward to phase 4 genotyping (10,731 CRC cases and 10,961 controls from eight centers). In addition to the previously reported 8q24, 15q13 and 18q21 CRC risk loci, we identified two previously unreported associations: rs10795668, located at 10p14 (P = 2.5 x 10(-13) overall; P = 6.9 x 10(-12) replication), and rs16892766, at 8q23.3 (P = 3.3 x 10(-18) overall; P = 9.6 x 10(-17) replication), which tags a plausible causative gene, EIF3H. These data provide further evidence for the 'common-disease common-variant' model of CRC predisposition.
To identify novel risk variants for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) we conducted a genome-wide association study of 299,983 tagging SNPs, with validation in four additional series totaling 2,503 cases and 5,789 controls. We identified four risk loci for CLL at 2q37.3 (rs757978, FARP2; odds ratio [OR] = 1.39; P = 2.11 x 10-9), 8q24.21 (rs2456449; OR = 1.26; P = 7.84 x 10-10), 15q21.3 (rs7169431; OR = 1.36; P = 4.74 x 10-7) and 16q24.1 (rs305061; OR = 1.22; P = 3.60 x 10-7). There was also evidence for risk loci at 15q25.2 (rs783540, CPEB1; OR = 1.18; P = 3.67 x 10-6) and 18q21.1 (rs1036935; OR = 1.22; P = 2.28 x 10-6). These data provide further evidence for genetic susceptibility to this B-cell hematological malignancy.
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 14 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tagSNPs) that are associated with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), and several of these tagSNPs are near bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) pathway loci. The penalty of multiple testing implicit in GWAS increases the attraction of complementary approaches for disease gene discovery, including candidate gene- or pathway-based analyses. The strongest candidate loci for additional predisposition SNPs are arguably those already known both to have functional relevance and to be involved in disease risk. To investigate this proposition, we searched for novel CRC susceptibility variants close to the BMP pathway genes GREM1 (15q13.3), BMP4 (14q22.2), and BMP2 (20p12.3) using sample sets totalling 24,910 CRC cases and 26,275 controls. We identified new, independent CRC predisposition SNPs close to BMP4 (rs1957636, P = 3.93×10−10) and BMP2 (rs4813802, P = 4.65×10−11). Near GREM1, we found using fine-mapping that the previously-identified association between tagSNP rs4779584 and CRC actually resulted from two independent signals represented by rs16969681 (P = 5.33×10−8) and rs11632715 (P = 2.30×10−10). As low-penetrance predisposition variants become harder to identify—owing to small effect sizes and/or low risk allele frequencies—approaches based on informed candidate gene selection may become increasingly attractive. Our data emphasise that genetic fine-mapping studies can deconvolute associations that have arisen owing to independent correlation of a tagSNP with more than one functional SNP, thus explaining some of the apparently missing heritability of common diseases.
Routine molecular screening of patients with CRC for Lynch syndrome using immunohistochemistry or MSI has better sensitivity for detecting mutation carriers than the Bethesda guidelines.
Objective
Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a substantial heritable component. Common genetic variation has been shown to contribute to CRC risk. In a large, multi-population study, we set out to assess the feasibility of CRC risk prediction using common genetic variant data, combined with other risk factors. We built a risk prediction model and applied it to the Scottish population using available data.
Design
Nine populations of European descent were studied to develop and validate colorectal cancer risk prediction models. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the combined effect of age, gender, family history (FH) and genotypes at 10 susceptibility loci that individually only modestly influence colorectal cancer risk. Risk models were generated from case-control data incorporating genotypes alone (n=39,266), and in combination with gender, age and family history (n=11,324). Model discriminatory performance was assessed using 10-fold internal cross-validation and externally using 4,187 independent samples. 10-year absolute risk was estimated by modelling genotype and FH with age- and gender-specific population risks.
Results
Median number of risk alleles was greater in cases than controls (10 vs 9, p<2.2×10−16), confirmed in external validation sets (Sweden p=1.2×10−6, Finland p=2×10−5). Mean per-allele increase in risk was 9% (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.05–1.13). Discriminative performance was poor across the risk spectrum (area under curve (AUC) for genotypes alone - 0.57; AUC for genotype/age/gender/FH - 0.59). However, modelling genotype data, FH, age and gender with Scottish population data shows the practicalities of identifying a subgroup with >5% predicted 10-year absolute risk.
Conclusion
We show that genotype data provides additional information that complements age, gender and FH as risk factors. However, individualized genetic risk prediction is not currently feasible. Nonetheless, the modelling exercise suggests public health potential, since it is possible to stratify the population into CRC risk categories, thereby informing targeted prevention and surveillance.
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