This study examines the simulation of three torrential rain events observed on 13-14 October 1995 (the Cévennes case), 12-13 November 1999 (the Aude case) and 8-9 September 2002 (the Gard case) over the southeastern part of France using the Meso-NH non-hydrostatic mesoscale numerical model. These cases were associated with extreme Heavy Precipitation Events (HPEs) with significant precipitation amounts exceeding 500 mm in less than 24 hours. Several sets of numerical experiments were performed with 10 km and 2.5 km horizontal resolutions. In part I of this study, special attention is paid to the experimental design for obtaining realistic simulations of HPEs with the Meso-NH model, as well as the evolution of the synoptic patterns in which the rainfall events are embedded.The best 2.5 km numerical simulations show the ability of the Meso-NH model to reproduce significant quasi-stationary rainfall events. Moreover, the model fairly reproduces the low-level mesoscale environments associated with the three HPEs. The HPEs formed in a slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of convective systems (diffluent upper-level southerly flow, PV anomalies, etc.). At lower levels, a southerly to easterly moderate to intense flow provided conditionally unstable and moist air as it moved over the relatively warm Mediterranean Sea, typical for this time of the year (late summer and autumn). The two extreme cases (Gard and Aude) differ from the more classical event (Cévennes) in terms of larger low-level moisture fluxes. Weaker values of conditional convective instability, as in the Aude case, is counterbalanced by a stronger warm and moist low-level jet. The mesoscale triggering and/or sustaining ingredients for deep convection and the physical mechanisms leading to the stationarity of these rainfall events are presented and discussed in a companion paper.

ABSTRACT:In the western Mediterranean basin, large amounts of precipitation can accumulate in less than a day when a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) stays over the same area for several hours. Heavy Precipitating Events (HPEs) in this region (especially southern France) are not only characterized by significant precipitation rates (typically more than 200 mm in less than 24 or 48 hours) but also by quasi-stationary behaviour. The aim of this present study is to use realistic simulations of past events to analyze and better understand the physical mechanisms which lead to the stationarity of HPEs over southern France using a high-resolution (2.5 km) non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model. We focused on three

[1] Torrential rains often occur in the western Mediterranean region during the fall season when the Mediterranean Sea is still warm. The Mediterranean Sea acts in moistening and warming the low level of the atmosphere. Then, the southerly to easterly flow that prevails before and during torrential rainfall events, transports the conditionally unstable air toward the coasts where the convection can develop often triggered by a flow interaction with orography. This study examines the sensitivity to the sea surface temperature (SST) of very short range (18-24 hours) high-resolution (2.4 km) forecasts of heavy precipitation events. Three torrential rainfall events were selected as representative of extreme rainfall events that occurred over southern France: two cases of quasistationary mesoscale convective systems and one other case characterized by a slow moving frontal perturbation. For each case, a number of runs is performed with the MESO-NH research model using several SST fields differing in their resolution or/and their average value over the Mediterranean basin. Results show that an increase (a decrease) of SST by several degrees, on average, intensifies (weakens) the convection. The convection can even be stopped with strong decrease of SST. Impacts on the stationary behavior of the systems have also been pointed out. A more detailed SST field influences the mesoscale patterns of the sea surface heat fluxes but have almost no significant effect on the convection and the low-level jets forecast. Eventually, the SST has been allowed to evolve during the runs through the action of the air-sea interface fluxes, resulting in local effects such as significant cooling of the SST beneath the low-level jet but almost no impact on the very short range forecasts of heavy precipitation.Citation: Lebeaupin, C., V. Ducrocq, and H. Giordani (2006), Sensitivity of torrential rain events to the sea surface temperature based on high-resolution numerical forecasts,

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