Climate change will impact soil properties such as soil moisture, organic carbon and temperature and changes in these properties will influence the sorption, biodegradation and leaching of trace organic contaminants to groundwater. In this study, we conducted a modeling case study to evaluate atrazine and estrone transport in the subsurface under current and future climate conditions at a field site in central Nebraska. According to the modeling results, in the future, enhanced evapotranspiration and increased average air temperature may cause drier soil conditions, which consequently reduces the biodegradation of atrazine and estrone in the water phase. On the other hand, greater transpiration rates lead to greater root solute uptake which may decrease the concentration of atrazine and estrone in the soil profile. Another consequence of future climate is that the infiltration and leaching rates for both atrazine and estrone may be lower under future climate scenarios. Reduced infiltration of trace organic compounds may indicate that lower trace organic concentrations in groundwater may occur under future climate scenarios.
Understanding the transport and accumulation of atrazine in the subsurface under future climate scenarios is essential for future agriculture and water management. Here, we predict atrazine transport and accumulation under an intensive corn production land based on 20 projected global climate model (GCM) realizations, while considering uncertainties of transport parameters. Our study predicted continuous groundwater table declination and atrazine mass accumulation on the study site. We show that atrazine mass accumulation in corn production areas is subject to total precipitation in the atrazine application season, whereas atrazine plume movement is controlled by the sequence of annual precipitation. Atrazine mass transport and accumulation are more sensitive to climate variation on the field sites with low sorption and atrazine degradation rate. Under the extreme condition, the atrazine plume can migrate as far as five meters from the ground surface in only three years. While annual mean precipitation in the Midwestern U.S. is projected to increase in the future, groundwater vulnerability to atrazine and associated water quality impacts may rise in the U.S. Corn Belt, especially in sites with low atrazine degradation and sorption.
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