The COVID-19 pandemic has precipitated a global crisis, with more than 1,430,000 confirmed cases and more than 85,000 confirmed deaths globally as of 9 April 2020 1-4 . Mitigation and suppression of new infections have emerged as the two predominant public health control strategies 5 . Both strategies focus on reducing new infections by limiting human-to-human interactions, which could be both socially and economically unsustainable in the long term. We have developed and analyzed an epidemiological intervention model that leverages serological tests 6,7 to identify and deploy recovered individuals 8 as focal points for sustaining safer interactions via interaction substitution, developing what we term 'shield immunity' at the population scale. The objective of a shield immunity strategy is to help to sustain the interactions necessary for the functioning of essential goods and services 9 while reducing the probability of transmission. Our shield immunity approach could substantively reduce the length and reduce the overall burden of the current outbreak, and can work synergistically with social distancing. The present model highlights the value of serological testing as part of intervention strategies, in addition to its well-recognized roles in estimating prevalence 10,11 and in the potential development of plasma-based therapies 12-15 .In the absence of reliable pharmaceutical interventions against SARS-CoV-2, multiple public health strategies are being deployed to slow the coronavirus pandemic 1,5,16 . These strategies can be broadly grouped into two approaches: mitigation and suppression. Mitigation includes a combination of social distancing (including school and university closures), case testing and symptomatic case isolation to reduce epidemic spread and burden on hospitals. Mitigation is intended to lessen an outbreak. However, the number of cases might still overwhelm health services 5 . Some jurisdictions have either preemptively or reactively adopted a combination of travel restrictions (shown to be effective in curtailing dispersion if implemented early enough 17,18 ) and suppression, which involves imposing complete shutdowns of the bulk of non-essential services for extended periods. Suppression strategies have led to marked decreases in new case rates in the short term by combining case isolation, quarantine, use of separate facilities for treating COVID-19 patients and large-scale

Phage therapy has been viewed as a potential treatment for bacterial infections for over a century. Yet, the year 2016 marks one of the first phase I/II human trials of a phage therapeutic - to treat burn wound patients in Europe. The slow progress in realizing clinical therapeutics is matched by a similar dearth in principled understanding of phage therapy. Theoretical models and in vitro experiments find that combining phage and bacteria often leads to coexistence of both phage and bacteria or phage elimination altogether. Both outcomes stand in contrast to the stated goals of phage therapy. A potential resolution to the gap between models, experiments, and therapeutic use of phage is the hypothesis that the combined effect of phage and host immune system can synergistically eliminate bacterial pathogens. Here, we propose a phage therapy model that considers the nonlinear dynamics arising from interactions between bacteria, phage and the host innate immune system. The model builds upon earlier efforts by incorporating a maximum capacity of the immune response and density-dependent immune evasion by bacteria. We analytically identify a synergistic regime in this model in which phage and the innate immune response jointly contribute to the elimination of the target bacteria. Crucially, we find that in this synergistic regime, neither phage alone nor the innate immune system alone can eliminate the bacteria. We confirm these findings using numerical simulations in biologically plausible scenarios. We utilize our numerical simulations to explore the synergistic effect and its significance for guiding the use of phage therapy in clinically relevant applications.

The spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria is a global public health crisis. Bacteriophage therapy (or “phage therapy”) constitutes a potential alternative approach to treat MDR infections. However, the effective use of phage therapy may be limited when phage-resistant bacterial mutants evolve and proliferate during treatment. Here, we develop a nonlinear population dynamics model of combination therapy that accounts for the system-level interactions between bacteria, phage, and antibiotics for in vivo application given an immune response against bacteria. We simulate the combination therapy model for two strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, one which is phage sensitive (and antibiotic resistant) and one which is antibiotic sensitive (and phage resistant). We find that combination therapy outperforms either phage or antibiotic alone and that therapeutic effectiveness is enhanced given interaction with innate immune responses. Notably, therapeutic success can be achieved even at subinhibitory concentrations of antibiotics, e.g., ciprofloxacin. These in silico findings provide further support to the nascent application of combination therapy to treat MDR bacterial infections, while highlighting the role of innate immunity in shaping therapeutic outcomes. IMPORTANCE This work develops and analyzes a novel model of phage-antibiotic combination therapy, specifically adapted to an in vivo context. The objective is to explore the underlying basis for clinical application of combination therapy utilizing bacteriophage that target antibiotic efflux pumps in Pseudomonas aeruginosa. In doing so, the paper addresses three key questions. How robust is combination therapy to variation in the resistance profiles of pathogens? What is the role of immune responses in shaping therapeutic outcomes? What levels of phage and antibiotics are necessary for curative success? As we show, combination therapy outperforms either phage or antibiotic alone, and therapeutic effectiveness is enhanced given interaction with innate immune responses. Notably, therapeutic success can be achieved even at subinhibitory concentrations of antibiotic. These in silico findings provide further support to the nascent application of combination therapy to treat MDR bacterial infections, while highlighting the role of system-level feedbacks in shaping therapeutic outcomes.

Viruses and their hosts can undergo coevolutionary arms races where hosts evolve increased resistance and viruses evolve counter‐resistance. Given these arms race dynamics (ARD), both players are predicted to evolve along a single trajectory as more recently evolved genotypes replace their predecessors. By coupling phenotypic and genomic analyses of coevolving populations of bacteriophage λ and Escherichia coli, we find conflicting evidence for ARD. Virus‐host infection phenotypes fit the ARD model, yet genomic analyses revealed fluctuating selection dynamics. Rather than coevolution unfolding along a single trajectory, cryptic genetic variation emerges and is maintained at low frequency for generations until it eventually supplants dominant lineages. These observations suggest a hybrid ‘leapfrog’ dynamic, revealing weaknesses in the predictive power of standard coevolutionary models. The findings shed light on the mechanisms that structure coevolving ecological networks and reveal the limits of using phenotypic or genomic data alone to differentiate coevolutionary dynamics.

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