Rationale Clinical decision support (CDS) tools leveraging electronic health records (EHRs) have been an approach for addressing challenges in asthma care but remain under-studied through clinical trials. Objectives To assess the effectiveness and efficiency of Asthma-Guidance and Prediction System (A-GPS), an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-assisted CDS tool, in optimizing asthma management through a randomized clinical trial (RCT). Methods This was a single-center pragmatic RCT with a stratified randomization design conducted for one year in the primary care pediatric practice of the Mayo Clinic, MN. Children (<18 years) diagnosed with asthma receiving care at the study site were enrolled along with their 42 primary care providers. Study subjects were stratified into three strata (based on asthma severity, asthma care status, and asthma diagnosis) and were blinded to the assigned groups. Measurements Intervention was a quarterly A-GPS report to clinicians including relevant clinical information for asthma management from EHRs and machine learning-based prediction for risk of asthma exacerbation (AE). Primary endpoint was the occurrence of AE within 1 year and secondary outcomes included time required for clinicians to review EHRs for asthma management. Main results Out of 555 participants invited to the study, 184 consented for the study and were randomized (90 in intervention and 94 in control group). Median age of 184 participants was 8.5 years. While the proportion of children with AE in both groups decreased from the baseline (P = 0.042), there was no difference in AE frequency between the two groups (12% for the intervention group vs. 15% for the control group, Odds Ratio: 0.82; 95%CI 0.374–1.96; P = 0.626) during the study period. For the secondary end points, A-GPS intervention, however, significantly reduced time for reviewing EHRs for asthma management of each participant (median: 3.5 min, IQR: 2–5), compared to usual care without A-GPS (median: 11.3 min, IQR: 6.3–15); p<0.001). Mean health care costs with 95%CI of children during the trial (compared to before the trial) in the intervention group were lower than those in the control group (-$1,036 [-$2177, $44] for the intervention group vs. +$80 [-$841, $1000] for the control group), though there was no significant difference (p = 0.12). Among those who experienced the first AE during the study period (n = 25), those in the intervention group had timelier follow up by the clinical care team compared to those in the control group but no significant difference was found (HR = 1.93; 95% CI: 0.82–1.45, P = 0.10). There was no difference in the proportion of duration when patients had well-controlled asthma during the study period between the intervention and the control groups. Conclusions While A-GPS-based intervention showed similar reduction in AE events to usual care, it might reduce clinicians’ burden for EHRs review resulting in efficient asthma management. A larger RCT is needed for further studying the findings. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02865967.

Sequences of events have often been modeled with computational techniques, but typical preprocessing steps and problem settings do not explicitly address the ramifications of timestamped events. Clinical data, such as is found in electronic health records (EHRs), typically comes with timestamp information. In this work, we define event sequences and their properties: synchronicity, evenness, and co-cardinality; we then show how asynchronous, uneven, and multi-cardinal problem settings can support explicit accountings of relative time. Our evaluation uses the temporally sensitive clinical use case of pediatric asthma, which is a chronic disease with symptoms (and lack thereof) evolving over time. We show several approaches to explicitly incorporating relative time into a recurrent neural network (RNN) model that improve the overall classification of patients into those with no asthma, those with persistent asthma, those in long-term remission, and those who have experienced relapse. We also compare and contrast these results with those in an inpatient intensive care setting.

A B S T R A C TOBJECTIVES: Children with multiple complex chronic conditions (MCCs) represent a small fraction of our communities but a disproportionate amount of health care cost and mortality. Because the temporal trends of children with MCCs within a geographically well-defined US pediatric population has not been previously assessed, health care planning and policy for this vulnerable population is limited. METHODS:In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified and enrolled all eligible children residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota, through the Rochester Epidemiology Project, a medical record linkage system of Olmsted County residents. The pediatric complex chronic conditions classification system version 2 was used to identify children with MCCs. Five-year period prevalence and incidence rates were calculated during the study period (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014) and characterized by age, sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status (SES) by using the housing-based index of socioeconomic status, a validated individual housing-based SES index. Age-, sex-, and ethnicity-adjusted prevalence and incidence rates were calculated, adjusting to the 2010 US total pediatric population. RESULTS:Five-year prevalence and incidence rates of children with MCCs in Olmsted County increased from 1200 to 1938 per 100 000 persons and from 256 to 335 per 100 000 person-years, respectively, during the study period. MCCs tend to be slightly more prevalent among children with a lower SES and with a racial minority background. CONCLUSIONS:Both 5-year prevalence and incidence rates of children with MCCs have significantly increased over time, and health disparities are present among these children. The clinical and financial outcomes of children with MCCs need to be assessed for formulating suitable health care planning given limited resources.

Background. Despite extensive evaluation processes to determine candidacy for kidney transplantation, variability in graft failure exists. The role of patient socioeconomic status (SES) in transplantation outcomes is poorly understood because of limitations of conventional SES measures. Methods. This population-based retrospective cohort study assessed whether a validated objective and individual-level housing-based SES index (HOUSES) would serve as a predictive tool for graft failure in patients (n = 181) who received a kidney transplant in Olmsted County, MN (January 1, 1998 to December 8, 2016). Associations were assessed between HOUSES (quartiles: Q1 [lowest] to Q4 [highest]) and graft failure until last follow-up date (December 31, 2016) using Cox proportional hazards. The mean age (SD) was 46.1 (17.2) years, 109 (60.2%) were male, 113 (62.4%) received a living kidney donor transplant, and 40 (22.1%) had a graft failure event. Results. Compared with Q1, patients with higher HOUSES (Q2–Q4) had significantly lower graft failure rates (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-0.92; P < 0.029), controlling for age, sex, race, previous kidney transplantation, and donor type. Conclusions. Although criteria for kidney transplant recipients are selective, patients with higher HOUSES had lower graft failure rates. Thus, HOUSES may enable transplantation programs to identify a target group for improving kidney transplantation outcomes.