BackgroundThe acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities.MethodologySTH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria.Principal FindingsWe found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets.Conclusions/SignificanceThe predictive risk maps and estimated deworming needs presented here will be helpful for escalating the control and spatial targeting of interventions against STH infections in Nigeria.

BackgroundNigeria has a significant burden of lymphatic filariasis (LF) caused by the parasite Wuchereria bancrofti. A major concern to the expansion of the LF elimination programme is the risk of serious adverse events (SAEs) associated with the use of ivermectin in areas co-endemic with Loa filariasis. To better understand this, as well as other factors that may impact on LF elimination, we used Micro-stratification Overlap Mapping (MOM) to highlight the distribution and potential impact of multiple disease interventions that geographically coincide in LF endemic areas and which will impact on LF and vice versa.Methodology/Principal findingsLF data from the literature and Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) were collated into a database. LF prevalence distributions; predicted prevalence of loiasis; ongoing onchocerciasis community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTi); and long-lasting insecticidal mosquito net (LLIN) distributions for malaria were incorporated into overlay maps using geographical information system (GIS) software. LF was prevalent across most regions of the country. The mean prevalence determined by circulating filarial antigen (CFA) was 14.0% (n = 134 locations), and by microfilaria (Mf) was 8.2% (n = 162 locations). Overall, LF endemic areas geographically coincided with CDTi priority areas, however, LLIN coverage was generally low (<50%) in areas where LF prevalence was high or co-endemic with L. loa.Conclusions/SignificanceThe extensive database and series of maps produced in this study provide an important overview for the LF Programme and will assist to maximize existing interventions, ensuring cost effective use of resources as the programme scales up. Such information is a prerequisite for the LF programme, and will allow for other factors to be included into planning, as well as monitoring and evaluation activities given the broad spectrum impact of the drugs used.

In areas of Nigeria where onchocerciasis is endemic, community-directed distributors (CDD) distribute ivermectin annually, as part of the effort to control the disease. Unfortunately, it has been reported that at least 35% of the distributors who have been trained in Nigeria are unwilling to participate further as CDD. The selection and training of new CDD, to replace those unwilling to continue, leads to annual expense that the national onchocerciasis-programme is finding difficult to meet, given other programme priorities and the limited resources. If the reported levels of attrition are true, they seriously threaten the sustainability of community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) in Nigeria. In 2002, interviews were held with 101 people who had been trained as CDD, including those who had stopped serving their communities, from 12 communities in south-eastern Nigeria that had high rates of CDD attrition. The results showed that, although the overall reported CDD attrition was 40.6%, the actual rate was only 10.9%. The CDD who had ceased participating in the annual rounds of ivermectin blamed a lack of incentives (65.9%), the demands of other employment (14.6%), the long distances involved in the house-to-house distribution (12.2%) or marital duties (7.3%). Analysis of the data obtained from all the interviewed CDD showed that inadequate supplies of ivermectin (P<0.01), lack of supervision (P<0.05) and a lack of monetary incentives (P<0.001) led to significant increases in attrition. Conversely, CDD retention was significantly enhanced when the distributors were selected by their community members (P<0.001), supervised (P<0.001), supplied with adequate ivermectin tablets (P<0.05), involved in educating their community members (P<0.05), and/or involved in other health programmes (P<0.001). Although CDD who were involved in other health programmes were relatively unlikely to cease participating in the distributions, they were more likely to take longer than 14 days to complete ivermectin distribution than other CDD, who only distributed ivermectin. Data obtained in interviews with present and past CDD appear vital for informing, directing, protecting and enhancing the performance of CDTI programmes, in Nigeria and elsewhere.

BackgroundLymphatic filariasis (LF) is a mosquito-borne parasitic disease and a major cause of disability worldwide. It is one of the neglected tropical diseases identified by the World Health Organization for elimination as a public health problem by 2020. Maps displaying disease distribution are helpful tools to identify high-risk areas and target scarce control resources.MethodsWe used pre-intervention site-level occurrence data from 1192 survey sites collected during extensive mapping surveys by the Nigeria Ministry of Health. Using an ensemble of machine learning modelling algorithms (generalised boosted models and random forest), we mapped the ecological niche of LF at a spatial resolution of 1 km2. By overlaying gridded estimates of population density, we estimated the human population living in LF risk areas on a 100 × 100 m scale.ResultsOur maps demonstrate that there is a heterogeneous distribution of LF risk areas across Nigeria, with large portions of northern Nigeria having more environmentally suitable conditions for the occurrence of LF. Here we estimated that approximately 110 million individuals live in areas at risk of LF transmission.ConclusionsMachine learning and ensemble modelling are powerful tools to map disease risk and are known to yield more accurate predictive models with less uncertainty than single models. The resulting map provides a geographical framework to target control efforts and assess its potential impacts.

Africa's populous country, Nigeria, contains or contained more cases of dracunculiasis, onchocerciasis, lymphatic filariasis, and schistosomiasis than any other African nation and ranks or ranked first (dracunculiasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis) or third (lymphatic filariasis) in the world for the same diseases. After beginning village-based interventions against dracunculiasis 20 years ago and confronting onchocerciasis a few years later, Nigeria has nearly eliminated dracunculiasis and has provided annual mass drug administration for onchocerciasis to over three quarters of that at-risk population for 7 years. With assistance from The Carter Center, Nigeria began treating lymphatic filariasis and schistosomiasis in two and three states, respectively, over the past decade, while conducting pioneering operational research as a basis for scaling up interventions against those diseases, for which much more remains to be done. This paper describes the status of Nigeria's struggles against these four neglected tropical diseases and discusses challenges and plans for the future.