Patient outcome in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is significantly influenced by karyotype. We studied 879 PMF patients to determine the individual and combinatorial prognostic relevance of somatic mutations. Analysis was performed in 483 European patients and the seminal observations were validated in 396 Mayo Clinic patients. Samples from the European cohort, collected at time of diagnosis, were analyzed for mutations in ASXL1, SRSF2, EZH2, TET2, DNMT3A, CBL, IDH1, IDH2, MPL and JAK2. Of these, ASXL1, SRSF2 and EZH2 mutations inter-independently predicted shortened survival. However, only ASXL1 mutations (HR: 2.02; P<0.001) remained significant in the context of the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS). These observations were validated in the Mayo Clinic cohort where mutation and survival analyses were performed from time of referral. ASXL1, SRSF2 and EZH2 mutations were independently associated with poor survival, but only ASXL1 mutations held their prognostic relevance (HR: 1.4; P=0.04) independent of the Dynamic IPSS (DIPSS)-plus model, which incorporates cytogenetic risk. In the European cohort, leukemia-free survival was negatively affected by IDH1/2, SRSF2 and ASXL1 mutations and in the Mayo cohort by IDH1 and SRSF2 mutations. Mutational profiling for ASXL1, EZH2, SRSF2 and IDH identifies PMF patients who are at risk for premature death or leukemic transformation.

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Key Points Survival in ET is superior to that of PV, regardless of mutational status, but remains inferior to the sex- and age-matched US population. JAK2/CALR/MPL mutational status is prognostically informative in PMF, regarding overall and leukemia-free survival.

This study signifies the presence of specific cytokine-phenotype associations in PMF and a prognostically relevant plasma cytokine signature that might prove useful as a laboratory tool for predicting and monitoring treatment response.

Calreticulin (CALR) mutations were recently described in JAK2 and MPL unmutated primary myelofibrosis (PMF) and essential thrombocythemia. In the current study, we compared the clinical, cytogenetic and molecular features of patients with PMF with or without CALR, JAK2 or MPL mutations. Among 254 study patients, 147 (58%) harbored JAK2, 63 (25%) CALR and 21 (8.3%) MPL mutations; 22 (8.7%) patients were negative for all three mutations, whereas one patient expressed both JAK2 and CALR mutations. Study patients were also screened for ASXL1 (31%), EZH2 (6%), IDH (4%), SRSF2 (12%), SF3B1 (7%) and U2AF1 (16%) mutations. In univariate analysis, CALR mutations were associated with younger age (P<0.0001), higher platelet count (P<0.0001) and lower DIPSS-plus score (P=0.02). CALR-mutated patients were also less likely to be anemic, require transfusions or display leukocytosis. Spliceosome mutations were infrequent (P=0.0001) in CALR-mutated patients, but no other molecular or cytogenetic associations were evident. In multivariable analysis, CALR mutations had a favorable impact on survival that was independent of both DIPSS-plus risk and ASXL1 mutation status (P=0.001; HR 3.4 for triple-negative and 2.2 for JAK2-mutated). Triple-negative patients also displayed inferior LFS (P=0.003). The current study identifies 'CALR(-)ASXL1(+)' and 'triple-negative' as high-risk molecular signatures in PMF.

Key Points• More than half of patients with PV or ET harbor DNA mutations/ variants other than JAK2/CALR/MPL.• The presence of some of these mutations adversely affects overall, leukemia-free, or myelofibrosis-free survival.Polycythemia vera (PV) is characterized by JAK2 and essential thrombocythemia (ET) by JAK2, calreticulin (CALR), and myeloproliferative leukemia virus oncogene (MPL) mutations; we describe the occurrence and prognostic relevance of DNA sequence variants/mutations other than JAK2/CALR/MPL. A myeloid neoplasm-relevant 27-gene panel was used for nextgeneration sequencing of bone marrow or whole blood DNA and conventional tools were used for analysis. "Adverse variants/mutations" were identified by age-adjusted multivariable analysis of impact on overall, leukemia-free, or myelofibrosis-free survival. Fifty-three percent of 133 Mayo Clinic patients with PV and 53% of 183 with ET harbored 1 or more sequence variants/mutations other than JAK2/CALR/MPL; the most frequent were TET2 and ASXL1. "Adverse variants/mutations" in PV included ASXL1, SRSF2, and IDH2 and in ET SH2B3, SF3B1, U2AF1, TP53, IDH2, and EZH2; combined prevalence was 15% and 15%, respectively. Adverse variants/mutations were associated with inferior survival in both PV (median, 7.7 vs 16.9 years) and ET (median, 9 vs 22 years) and the effect was independent of conventional prognostic models with respective hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 2.8 (1.5-5.1) and 2.6 (1.4-4.8); these observations were validated in 215 Italian patients with PV and 174 with ET. In both Mayo Clinic and Italian cohorts, leukemic or fibrotic progression was also predicted by adverse variants/mutations. Number of mutations did not provide additional prognostic information. We conclude that targeted deep sequencing in PV and ET allows for genetic risk stratification that is independent of clinically derived prognostic models.

In a cohort of 466 patients, we sought to clarify the prognostic relevance of ASXL1 and SETBP1 mutations, among others, in World Health Organization-defined chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) and its added value to the Mayo prognostic model. In univariate analysis, survival was adversely affected by ASXL1 (nonsense and frameshift) but not SETBP1 mutations. In multivariable analysis, ASXL1 mutations, absolute monocyte count >10 × 10(9)/l, hemoglobin <10 g/dl, platelets <100 × 10(9)/l and circulating immature myeloid cells were independently predictive of shortened survival: hazard ratio (95% confidence interval (CI)) values were 1.5 (1.1-2.0), 2.2 (1.6-3.1), 2.0 (1.6-2.6), 1.5 (1.2-1.9) and 2.0 (1.4-2.7), respectively. A regression coefficient-based prognostic model based on these five risk factors delineated high (≥3 risk factors; HR 6.2, 95% CI 3.7-10.4) intermediate-2 (2 risk factors; HR 3.4, 95% CI 2.0-5.6) intermediate-1 (one risk factor; HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.3) and low (no risk factors) risk categories with median survivals of 16, 31, 59 and 97 months, respectively. Neither ASXL1 nor SETBP1 mutations predicted leukemic transformation. The current study confirms the independent prognostic value of nonsense/frameshift ASXL1 mutations in CMML and signifies its added value to the Mayo prognostic model, as had been shown previously in the French consortium model.

High-throughput DNA sequence analysis was used to screen for TET2 mutations in bone marrow-derived DNA from 239 patients with BCR-ABL-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). Thirty-two mutations (19 frameshift, 10 nonsense, 3 missense; mostly involving exons 4 and 12) were identified for an overall mutational frequency of ~13%. Specific diagnoses included polycythemia vera (PV; n=89), essential thrombocythemia (ET; n=57), primary myelofibrosis (PMF; n=60), post-PV MF (n=14), post-ET MF (n=7) and blast phase PV/ET/MF (n=12); the corresponding mutational frequencies were ~16, 5, 17, 14, 14 and 17% (P=0.50). Mutant TET2 was detected in ~17 and ~7% of JAK2V617F-positive and -negative cases, respectively (P=0.04). However, this apparent clustering of the two mutations was accounted for by an independent association between mutant TET2 and advanced age; mutational frequency was ~23% in patients ≥60 years old versus ~4% in younger patients (P<0.0001). The presence of mutant TET2 did not affect survival, leukemic transformation or thrombosis in either PV or PMF; a correlation with hemoglobin <10 g per 100 ml in PMF was noted (P=0.05). We conclude that TET2 mutations occur in both JAK2V617F-positive and -negative MPN, are more prevalent in older patients, display similar frequencies across MPN subcategories and disease stages, and hold limited prognostic relevance.