Coupled Sun-to-Earth models represent a key part of the future development of space weather forecasting. With respect to predicting the state of the thermosphere and ionosphere, there has been a recent paradigm shift; it is now clear that any self-respecting model of this region needs to include some representation of forcing from the lower atmosphere, as well as solar and geomagnetic forcing. Here we assess existing modeling capability and set out a road map for the important next steps needed to ensure further advances. These steps include a model verification strategy, analysis of the impact of nonhydrostatic dynamical cores, and a cost-benefit analysis of model chemistry for weather and climate applications.Plain Language Summary Numerical models that comprehensively simulate the region between the Sun and the Earth represent a key part of the future development of space weather forecasting. With respect to predicting the Earth's upper atmosphere, there has been a recent paradigm shift; it is now clear that any self-respecting model of this region needs to include some representation of impacts from below (the lower atmosphere) as well as from above (solar variability and the effects of solar wind fluctuations). Here we assess existing modeling capability and set out a road map for the important next steps needed to ensure further advances. These steps include a strategy for checking the accuracy of the models, an analysis of the impact of methods chosen to represent upper atmosphere dynamics, and an assessment of the relative benefits of comprehensive (but expensive) and simplified (but inexpensive) model representations of upper atmosphere chemistry. Key Points:• We have reached a paradigm shift, where any self-respecting space weather model of the upper atmosphere now needs to have some representation of the lower atmosphere • Further model developments are required in several key areas, including dynamical cores and the improved representation of gravity waves • A road map of future actions is presented to ensure good progress continues to be made; this includes the development of a multi-model verification strategy

Context. Solar wind electrons play an important role in the energy balance of the solar wind acceleration by carrying energy into interplanetary space in the form of electron heat flux. The heat flux is stored in the complex electron velocity distribution functions (VDFs) shaped by expansion, Coulomb collisions, and field-particle interactions. Aims. We investigate how the suprathermal electron deficit in the anti-strahl direction, which was recently discovered in the near-Sun solar wind, drives a kinetic instability and creates whistler waves with wave vectors that are quasi-parallel to the direction of the background magnetic field. Methods. We combine high-cadence measurements of electron pitch-angle distribution functions and electromagnetic waves provided by Solar Orbiter during its first orbit. Our case study is based on a burst-mode data interval from the Electrostatic Analyser System (SWA-EAS) at a distance of 112 R S (0.52 au) from the Sun, during which several whistler wave packets were detected by Solar Orbiter's Radio and Plasma Waves (RPW) instrument. Results. The sunward deficit creates kinetic conditions under which the quasi-parallel whistler wave is driven unstable. We directly test our predictions for the existence of these waves through solar wind observations. We find whistler waves that are quasi-parallel and almost circularly polarised, propagating away from the Sun, coinciding with a pronounced sunward deficit in the electron VDF. The cyclotron-resonance condition is fulfilled for electrons moving in the direction opposite to the direction of wave propagation, with energies corresponding to those associated with the sunward deficit. Conclusions. We conclude that the sunward deficit acts as a source of quasi-parallel whistler waves in the solar wind. The quasilinear diffusion of the resonant electrons tends to fill the deficit, leading to a reduction in the total electron heat flux.

We briefly review an existing model of the structure of reconnection layers which predicts that several more distinct layers, in the form of contact discontinuities, rotational Alfvèn waves, or slow shocks, should be identifiable in solar wind reconnection events than are typically reported in studies of reconnection outflows associated with bifurcated current sheets. We re-examine this notion and recast the identification of such layers in terms of the changes associated with the boundaries of both the ion and electron outflows from the reconnection current layers. We then present a case study using Solar Orbiter MAG and SWA data, which provides evidence consistent with this picture of extended multiple layers around the bifurcated current sheet. A full confirmation of this picture requires more detailed examination of the particle distributions in this and other events. However, we believe this concept is a valuable framework for considering the nature of reconnection layers in the solar wind.

Recent satellite measurements of a layer of enhanced nitrous oxide (N2O) in the mesosphere‐lower thermosphere (MLT) from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment‐Fourier Transform Spectrometer have suggested an unexpected, minor high‐altitude production source. Here we report the development of a mechanism and the first model simulations, which can explain the formation of this MLT N2O layer. N2O production occurs primarily via a reaction route involving the excitation of N2 from secondary electrons. Simulations using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, with external forcing from the Global Airglow model, quantitatively reproduce the observed vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal N2O variations. Sensitivity results indicate that photoelectrons are far more important than previously predicted, causing approximately two thirds of global N2O production in the MLT. Energetic electron precipitation over high latitudes provides the remaining contribution. Solar cycle analysis reveals N2O enhancements of up to ×2 at solar maximum compared to solar minimum.

Small-scale kinetic processes associated with turbulence, plasma instabilities, magnetic reconnection, etc., play a major role in dissipating this energy and governing the large-scale evolution of the solar wind. However, a general impediment to improving the understanding of the kinetic physics of the solar wind is in the limitations on measurement cadences of particle instruments, which are usually several orders of magnitude below the equivalent cadences of field instruments. Nevertheless, knowledge of the details of the particle velocity distribution functions (VDFs) at sub-second cadence is required to make progress in this area. This is particularly true for the electron VDFs, which play a significant role in the overall energetics of the solar wind through their transmission of heat flux from the Sun. In this paper, we detail and illustrate a novel measurement scheme deployed on Solar Orbiter's Solar Wind Analyser Electron Analyser System (SWA-EAS), which allows for 2D pitch angle distributions (PAD) to be returned over short periods (5-10 minutes) at a cadence of 0.125 seconds. This is achieved through the use of a B-field vector shared by the magnetometer (MAG) instrument to steer the SWA-EAS system to record only that part of the full SWA-EAS field-of-view needed to construct the PAD. We provide an example of early observations using this scheme to illustrate that it is working well. Given that the electrons are usually gyrotropic, these measurements provide a new tool with which to derive details of the electron VDFs at high cadence for the study of the solar wind's kinetic processes.