We present a methodology to identify change-points in financial markets where the governing regime shifts from a constant rate-of-return, i.e. normal growth, to a superexponential growth described by a power-law hazard rate. The latter regime corresponds, in our view, to financial bubbles driven by herding behavior of market participants. Assuming that the time series of log-price returns of a financial index can be modeled by arithmetic Brownian motion, with an additional jump process with power-law hazard function to approximate the superexponential growth, we derive a threshold value of the hazard-function control parameter, allowing us to decide in which regime the market is more likely to be at any given time. An analysis of the Standard & Poors 500 index over the last 60 years provides evidence that the methodology has merit in identifying when a period of herding behavior begins, and, perhaps more importantly, when it ends.
Log-periodic power laws often occur as signatures of impending criticality of hierarchical systems in the physical sciences. It has been proposed that similar signatures may be apparent in the price evolution of financial markets as bubbles and the associated crashes develop. The features of such market bubbles have been extensively studied over the past 20 years, and models derived from an initial discrete scale invariance assumption have been developed and tested against the wealth of financial data with varying degrees of success. In this paper, the equations that form the basis for the standard log-periodic power law model and its higher extensions are compared to a logistic model derived from the solution of the Schröder equation for the renormalization group with nonlinear scaling function. Results for the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices studied previously in the literature are presented and compared to established models, including a discussion of the apparent frequency shifting observed in the S&P 500 index in the 1980s. In the particular case of the Nikkei 225 anti-bubble between 1990 and 2003, the logistic model appears to provide a better description of the large-scale observed features over the whole 13-year period, particularly near the end of the anti-bubble.
Michael Jackson's video, Dangerous, moves viewers beyond space and time to a liminal reality that invites the audience to identify with the music, lyrics, images, and persona of Jackson. This offers to ritually transform viewers from interpersonal and societal tensions of the 1990s to a utopian ideology that unites all peoples. Rhetorical analysis is used to uncover themes and patterns that suggest this latent ideology and create a ritual of transformation. This study uncovers the rhetorical movement of the ritual process within the video text. Jackson himself is the liminal bridge offering to move fans from victim to deity status. Ultimately, this ideology transforms Jackson as his persona is constructed, but it fails as it offers temporary solutions to tensions that reflect the status quo.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.