The target lipid model (TLM) has been previously applied to predict the aquatic toxicity of hydrocarbons and other nonionic organic chemicals and for deriving the concentrations above which 95% of species should be protected (HC5 values). Several concerns have been identified with the TLM-derived HC5 when it is applied in a substance risk assessment context. These shortcomings were addressed by expanding the acute and chronic toxicity databases to include more diverse taxonomic groups and increase the number of species. The TLM was recalibrated with these expanded databases, resulting in critical target lipid body burdens and acute-to-chronic ratios that met the required guidelines for using species sensitivity distributions in substance risk assessment. The HC5 equation was further revised to consider covarying model parameters. The calculated HC5 values derived from the revised TLM framework were validated using an independent data set for hydrocarbons comprising 106 chronic values across plants, invertebrates, and fish. Assuming a sum binomial distribution, the 95% confidence limit for a 5% failure is between 0.8 and 9.2%. Eight chronic values fell below the HC5, corresponding to an excursion of 7.5%, which falls within the expected uncertainty bounds. Thus, calculated HC5s derived from the revised TLM framework were found to be consistent with the intended protection goals. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:1579-1593. © 2018 SETAC.

The tableau input coupled kinetic equilibrium transport-unit world model (TICKET-UWM) has been developed as a screening model for assessing potential environmental risks associated with the release of metals into lakes. The model is based on a fully implicit, one-step solution algorithm that allows for simultaneous consideration of dissolved and particulate phase transport; metal complexation to organic matter and inorganic ligands; precipitation of metal hydroxides, carbonates, and sulfides; competitive interactions of metals and major cations with biotic ligands; a simplified description of biogeochemical cycling of organic carbon and sulfur; and dissolution kinetics for metal powders, massives, and other solid forms. Application of TICKET-UWM to a generalized lake in the Sudbury area of the Canadian Shield is presented to demonstrate the overall cycling of metals in lakes and the nonlinear effects of chemical speciation on metal responses. In addition, the model is used to calculate critical loads for metals, with acute toxicity of Daphnia magna as the final endpoint. Model results show that the critical loads for Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn varied from 2.5 to 39.0 g metal/m(2) -year and were found to be one or more orders of magnitude higher than comparable loads for pesticides (lindane, 4,4'-DDT) and several polyaromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) compounds. In sensitivity calculations, critical metal-loading rates were found to vary significantly as a function of the hydraulic detention time, water hardness, and metal dissolution kinetic rates.

No abstract