This article presents an expected cost model for evaluating and comparing the performance of eyewitness identification procedures. The model estimates the expected cost of an identification procedure in order to quantify how well the procedure helps the police achieve the investigation goal of identifying and incriminating the culprit. We first apply the expected cost model to analyze five major procedural reforms, including showups versus lineups, filler similarity, administrator influence, lineup instruction, and presentation format. Our analysis reveals that when there is a trade-off between accurate and mistaken identifications, conclusions about procedural superiority depend on the prior probability of guilt and relative costs of different identification outcomes. We then conduct an additional analysis based on a simultaneous consideration of all identification outcomes (i.e., suspect identifications, filler identifications, and rejections). Our analysis shows that assuming different costs for filler identifications and rejections can change conclusions about procedural superiority. We conclude by discussing insights provided by the expected cost model regarding how the legal system can reduce expected costs of eyewitness identification-by changing the conditional probabilities, by reducing the costs of identification outcomes, or by increasing the prior probability of guilt. Public Significance StatementThe expected cost model considers the probability that a suspect is the culprit before an identification occurs, the probabilities of eyewitness responses, and the costs of eyewitness responses. The model ultimately estimates the ability of an eyewitness identification procedure to help police achieve the investigation goal of identifying and incriminating culprits. It provides a useful tool for researchers and policymakers to evaluate eyewitness identification procedures.
This study describes the development, implementation, and evaluation of an initial stakeholder engagement experience designed to facilitate knowledge co-production. The engagement experience is part of a collaborative research framework (CRF), which facilitates iterative interactions among diverse researchers and stakeholders around the topic of enhanced climate resilience. Here, we describe the: (1) need for and development of a CRF as it relates to stakeholder engagement and knowledge co-production; (2) implementation of the initial engagement experience, focused around individual semi-structured interviews, in the context of a snow-dependent, arid river basin where historical water over allocation, climate change, and diversified water uses challenge the basin’s resilience; and (3) formative evaluation of the engagement experience using an online survey to inform the development of more effective engagement practices. Results of the evaluation indicate that, after participating, most stakeholders understand and recognize the importance of research goals, demonstrate positive attitudes toward collaborative research and researchers, view their contribution of knowledge and expertise as critical to research, and perceive researchers as eager to use their expertise. Moreover, stakeholders emphasized various context-specific goals for knowledge co-production, such as finding innovative ways to adapt to increased competition for diminishing water supplies. To achieve these goals, stakeholders suggested researchers learn about their basin, including its water allocation history and agricultural practices. These results highlight the importance of centering stakeholder engagement experiences within a broader CRF and formatively evaluating such experiences to adapt them to achieve research goals.
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