Determining catchment responses to climate signals gives insight into the potential effects of climate change. This study tested the hypothesis that a 28‐year time series of water yields from four headwater catchments in the Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW), Ontario contains signals of non‐stationary climate change and naturally occurring stationary climate oscillations and that the effects of these signals are greater in catchments with lower rates of change in water loading and lower water storage capacity (small wetlands). Non‐stationary trends explained 0%, 18%, 44%, and 52% of the variance in the water yields of the four catchments. Wavelet analysis using Morlet wavelets identified stationary responses at multiple temporal scales, increasing the amount of variance explained to 56%, 63%, 76%, and 81% when combining stationary and non‐stationary models. The catchment with low water loading and low water storage was most sensitive to non‐stationary and stationary signals, suggesting that these catchments act as sentinels to detect climatic signals. Wavelet coherence analysis revealed correlations between global climate oscillation indices and water yield. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index was strongly correlated with both temperature and precipitation (R2 = 0.46, P < 0.001 and R2 of 0.34, P < 0.001, respectively). Temperature in the TLW increased by 0.067 °C per year from 1981 to 2008, but approximately 0.037 °C of this increase can be explained by the AMO index. While it is likely that anthropogenic climate change impacts water yields, it is important to account for multiple nested climate oscillations to avoid exaggerating its effects. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
[1] Headwater catchment hydrology and biogeochemistry are influenced by climate, including linear trends (nonstationary signals) and climate oscillations (stationary signals). We used an analytical framework to detect nonstationary and stationary signals in yearly time series of nutrient export [dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), nitrate (NO 3 À -N), and total dissolved phosphorus (TDP)] in forested headwater catchments with differential water loading and water storage potential at the Turkey Lakes Watershed in Ontario, Canada. We tested the hypotheses that (1) climate has nonstationary and stationary effects on nutrient export, the combination of which explains most of the variation in nutrient export; (2) more metabolically active nutrients (e.g., DON, NO 3 À -N, and TDP) are more sensitive to these signals; and (3) catchments with relatively low water loading and water storage capacity are more sensitive to these signals. Both nonstationary and stationary signals were identified, and the combination of both explained the majority of the variation in nutrient export data. More variation was explained in more labile nutrients (DON, NO 3 À -N, and TDP), which were also more sensitive to climate signals. The catchment with low-water storage potential and low water loading was most sensitive to nonstationary and stationary climatic oscillations, suggesting that these hydrologic features are characteristic of the most effective sentinels of climate change. The observed complex links between climate change, climatic oscillations, and water nutrient fluxes in headwater catchments suggest that climate may have considerable influence on the productivity and biodiversity of surface waters, in addition to other drivers such as atmospheric pollution.Citation: Mengistu, S. G., C. G. Quick, and I. F. Creed (2013), Nutrient export from catchments on forested landscapes reveals complex nonstationary and stationary climate signals, Water Resour.
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