Abstract. We present a new water percolation routine added to the one-dimensional snowpack model Crocus as an alternative to the empirical bucket routine. This routine solves the Richards equation, which describes flow of water through unsaturated porous snow governed by capillary suction, gravity and hydraulic conductivity of the snow layers. We tested the Richards routine on two data sets, one recorded from an automatic weather station over the winter of 2013-2014 at Filefjell, Norway, and the other an idealized synthetic data set. Model results using the Richards routine generally lead to higher water contents in the snow layers. Snow layers often reached a point at which the ice crystals' surface area is completely covered by a thin film of water (the transition between pendular and funicular regimes), at which feedback from the snow metamorphism and compaction routines are expected to be nonlinear. With the synthetic simulation 18 % of snow layers obtained a saturation of > 10 % and 0.57 % of layers reached saturation of > 15 %. The Richards routine had a maximum liquid water content of 173.6 kg m −3 whereas the bucket routine had a maximum of 42.1 kg m −3 . We found that wet-snow processes, such as wet-snow metamorphism and wet-snow compaction rates, are not accurately represented at higher water contents. These routines feed back on the Richards routines, which rely heavily on grain size and snow density. The parameter sets for the water retention curve and hydraulic conductivity of snow layers, which are used in the Richards routine, do not represent all the snow types that can be found in a natural snowpack. We show that the new routine has been implemented in the Crocus model, but due to feedback amplification and parameter uncertainties, meaningful applicability is limited. Updating or adapting other routines in Crocus, specifically the snow compaction routine and the grain metamorphism routine, is needed before Crocus can accurately simulate the snowpack using the Richards routine.
Simulation tools and their integrated models are widely used to estimate potential starting, transit and runout zones of gravitational natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and landslides (i.e., gravitational mass flows [GMFs]). Forests growing in areas susceptible to GMFs can influence their release and propagation probabilities (i.e., frequency and magnitude of an event) as well as their intensity. If and how well depends on the GMF type, the topography of the terrain and the forests’ structure. In this chapter, we introduce basic concepts of computer models and state-of-the-art methods for modeling forest interactions with rockfall, snow avalanches and landslides. Furthermore, an example of a protective forest routine embedded in the runout angle-based GMF simulation tool Flow-Py will be presented together with its parameterization for forest-GMF interactions. We applied Flow-Py and two custom extensions to model where forests protect people and assets against GMFs (the protective function) and how forests reduce their frequency, magnitude and/or intensity (the protective effect). The goal of this chapter is to describe protective forest models, so that practitioners and decision makers can better utilize them and their results as decision support tools for risk-based protective forest and ecosystem-based integrated risk management of natural hazards.
Protective forests are an effective Forest-based Solution (FbS) for Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR) and are part of an integrated risk management (IRM) of natural hazards. However, their utilization requires addressing conflicting interests as well as considering relevant spatial and temporal scales. Decision support systems (DSS) can improve the quality of such complex decision-making processes regarding the most suitable and accepted combinations of risk mitigation measures. We introduce four easy-to-apply DSS to foster an ecosystem-based and integrated management of natural hazard risks as well as to increase the acceptance of protective forests as FbS for Eco-DRR: (1) the Flow-Py simulation tool for gravitational mass flows that can be used to model forests with protective functions and to estimate their potential for reducing natural hazards’ energy, (2) an exposure assessment model chain for quantifying forests’ relevance for reducing natural hazard risks, (3) the Rapid Risk management Appraisal (RRA), a participatory method aiming to identify IRM strengths and points for improvement, and (4) the Protective Forest Assessment Tool (FAT), an online DSS for comparing different mitigation measures. These are only a few examples covering various aims and spatial and temporal scales. Science and practice need to collaborate to provide applied DSS for an IRM of natural hazards.
Abstract. Abstract. We present a new water percolation routine added to the 1D snowpack model Crocus as an alternative to the empirical bucket routine. This routine is based on Richards equation, and describes flow in an unsaturated porous medium governed by capillary suction and hydraulic conductivity of snow layers. We tested the Richards routine on two data sets, one recorded from an automatic weather station over the winter of 2013–2014 at Filefjell, Norway, and a simple synthetic data set. Model results using the Richards routine generally lead to thinner and denser simulated crust layers compared to the bucket routine. Wet snow layers often reach the transition between the pendular and funicular regimes, with 17 % of snow layers obtaining saturation of > 10 % and 4.3 % of layers had saturation of > 15 % for the synthetic data set. The Richards routine had a maximum liquid water content of 167.3 kg m-3 where the bucket routine had a maximum of 42.1 kg m-3. To express the water retention curve and the hydraulic conductivity of snow layers, the Richards routine heavily relies on accurate density and grain size estimations. We found the Richards routine was sensitive to the chosen modelling time step. The time step dependency is a result of feedback between the water percolation routine and the snows compaction and metamorphism routines. We show that the new routine has been implemented in the Crocus model, but due to amplification of parameter uncertainties through a number of feedbacks, meaningful applicability is limited until new and better parameterizations of water retention is developed for different snow types.
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