[1] Present-day shortcomings in the representation of upper tropospheric ice clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) lead to errors in weather and climate forecasts as well as account for a source of uncertainty in climate change projections. An ongoing challenge in rectifying these shortcomings has been the availability of adequate, high-quality, global observations targeting ice clouds and related precipitating hydrometeors. In addition, the inadequacy of the modeled physics and the often disjointed nature between model representation and the characteristics of the retrieved/observed values have hampered GCM development and validation efforts from making effective use of the measurements that have been available. Thus, even though parameterizations in GCMs accounting for cloud ice processes have, in some cases, become more sophisticated in recent years, this development has largely occurred independently of the global-scale measurements. With the relatively recent addition of satellite-derived products from Aura/Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and CloudSat, there are now considerably more resources with new and unique capabilities to evaluate GCMs. In this article, we illustrate the shortcomings evident in model representations of cloud ice through a comparison of the simulations assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, briefly discuss the range of global observational resources that are available, and describe the essential components of the model parameterizations that characterize their ''cloud'' ice and related fields. Using this information as background, we (1) discuss some of the main considerations and cautions that must be taken into account in making model-data comparisons related to cloud ice, (2) illustrate present progress and uncertainties in applying satellite cloud ice (namely from MLS and CloudSat) to model diagnosis, (3) show some indications of model improvements, and finally (4) discuss a number of remaining questions and suggestions for pathways forward.
An idealized GCM is used to investigate how the strength and meridional extent of the Hadley circulation depend on the planet radius, rotation rate, and thermal driving. Over wide parameter ranges, the strength and meridional extent of the Hadley circulation display clear scaling relations with regime transitions, which are not predicted by existing theories of axisymmetric Hadley circulations. For example, the scaling of the strength as a function of the radiative-equilibrium equator-to-pole temperature contrast exhibits a regime transition corresponding to a regime transition in scaling laws of baroclinic eddy fluxes. The scaling of the strength of the cross-equatorial Hadley cell as a function of the latitude of maximum radiative-equilibrium temperature exhibits a regime transition from a regime in which eddy momentum fluxes strongly influence the strength to a regime in which the influence of eddy momentum fluxes is weak.Over a wide range of flow parameters, albeit not always, the Hadley circulation strength is directly related to the eddy momentum flux divergence at the latitude of the streamfunction extremum. Simulations with hemispherically symmetric thermal driving span circulations with local Rossby numbers in the horizontal upper branch of the Hadley circulation between 0.1 and 0.8, indicating that neither nonlinear nearly inviscid theories, valid for Ro → 1, nor linear theories, valid for Ro → 0, of axisymmetric Hadley circulations can be expected to be generally adequate. Nonlinear theories of axisymmetric Hadley circulations may account for aspects of the circulation when the maximum radiative-equilibrium temperature is displaced sufficiently far away from the equator, which results in cross-equatorial Hadley cells with nearly angular momentumconserving upper branches.The dependence of the Hadley circulation on eddy fluxes, which are themselves dependent on extratropical circulation characteristics such as meridional temperature gradients, suggests that tropical circulations depend on the extratropical climate.
It is generally held that atmospheric macroturbulence can be strongly nonlinear. Yet weakly nonlinear models successfully account for scales and structures of baroclinic eddies in Earth's atmosphere. Here a theory and simulations with an idealized GCM are presented that suggest weakly nonlinear models are so successful because atmospheric macroturbulence organizes itself into critical states of weak nonlinear eddy-eddy interactions. By modifying the thermal structure of the extratropical atmosphere such that its supercriticality remains limited, macroturbulence inhibits nonlinear eddy-eddy interactions and the concomitant inverse energy cascade from the length scales of baroclinic instability to larger scales. For small meridional surface temperature gradients, the extratropical thermal stratification and tropopause height are set by radiation and convection, and the supercriticality is less than one; for sufficiently large meridional surface temperature gradients, the extratropical thermal stratification and tropopause height are modified by baroclinic eddies such that the supercriticality does not significantly exceed one. In either case, the scale of the energy-containing eddies is similar to the scale of the linearly most unstable baroclinic waves, and eddy kinetic and available potential energies are equipartitioned. The theory and simulations point to fundamental constraints on the thermal structures and global circulations of the atmospheres of Earth and other planets, for example, by providing limits on the tropopause height and estimates for eddy scales, eddy energies, and jet separation scales.
Reanalysis 2 data are used to calculate the monthly mean meridional circulation and eddy diffusivity from 1979 to 2002 for use in the California Institute of Technology-Jet Propulsion Laboratory two-dimensional (2-D) chemistry and transport model (CTM). This allows for an investigation of the impact of dynamics on the interannual variability of the tropical total column ozone for all years for which the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet merged total ozone data are available. The first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the deseasonalized and detrended stratospheric stream function capture 88% of the total variance on interannual timescales. The first EOF, accounting for over 70% of the interannual variance, is related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its interaction with annual cycles, the QBO-annual beat (QBO-AB). The 2-D CTM provides realistic simulations of the seasonal and interannual variability of ozone in the tropics. The equatorial ozone anomaly from the model is close to that derived from the observations. The phase and amplitude of the QBO are well captured by the model. The magnitude of the QBO signal is somewhat larger in the model than it is in the data. The QBO-AB found in the simulated ozone agrees well with that in the observed data.
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