Environmental stress is increasing worldwide, yet we lack a clear picture of how stress disrupts the stability of microbial communities and the ecosystem services they provide. Here, we present the first evidence that naturally-occurring microbiomes display network properties characteristic of unstable communities when under persistent stress. By assessing changes in diversity and structure of soil microbiomes along 40 replicate stress gradients (elevation/water availability gradients) in the Florida scrub ecosystem, we show that: (1) prokaryotic and fungal diversity decline in high stress, and (2) two network properties of stable microbial communities—modularity and negative:positive cohesion—have a clear negative relationship with environmental stress, explaining 51–78% of their variation. Interestingly, pathogenic taxa/functional guilds decreased in relative abundance along the stress gradient, while oligotrophs and mutualists increased, suggesting that the shift in negative:positive cohesion could result from decreasing negative:positive biotic interactions consistent with the predictions of the Stress Gradient Hypothesis. Given the crucial role microbiomes play in ecosystem functions, our results suggest that, by limiting the compartmentalization of microbial associations and creating communities dominated by positive associations, increasing stress in the Anthropocene could destabilize microbiomes and undermine their ecosystem services.

Defining species' niches is central to understanding their distributions and is thus fundamental to basic ecology and climate change projections. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are a key component of making accurate projections and include descriptions of the niche in terms of both response curves and rankings of variable importance. In this study, we evaluate Maxent's ranking of environmental variables based on their importance in delimiting species' range boundaries by asking whether these same variables also govern annual recruitment based on long-term demographic studies. We found that Maxent-based assessments of variable importance in setting range boundaries in the California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense; CTS) correlate very well with how important those variables are in governing ongoing recruitment of CTS at the population level. This strong correlation suggests that Maxent's ranking of variable importance captures biologically realistic assessments of factors governing population persistence. However, this result holds only when Maxent models are built using best-practice procedures and variables are ranked based on permutation importance. Our study highlights the need for building high-quality niche models and provides encouraging evidence that when such models are built, they can reflect important aspects of a species' ecology.

The Stress Gradient Hypothesis (SGH), which predicts increasing ratios of facilitative:competitive interactions with increasing stress, has long been a guiding framework for conceptualizing plant-plant interactions. Recently, there has been a growing recognition of the roles of microbes in mitigating or exacerbating environmental stress for their plant hosts. As such, we might predict, based on the SGH, that beneficial microbial effects on plant performance should be positively associated with stress. Specifically, we hypothesized that support for the SGH would depend on the host plant's habitat specialization such that species that specialize in high stress habitats and thus likely coevolved with the resident microbes would exhibit stronger support for the SGH than non-specialist plant species. We further hypothesized that support for the SGH would vary with germination frequency, since boosting germination of low-frequency germinators is one effective means by which microbes can benefit plant species performance. Here, we explore whether plant-microbial interactions support the SGH using 12 plant species native to the Florida rosemary scrub. We conducted factorial experiments that manipulated the presence of microbes in nine soils collected along an elevational stress gradient, and recorded germination frequency and biomass. Microbes increased the germination frequency of four species, all of which had relatively low germination rates. Furthermore, we found support for the SGH in nearly one-half of the species examined, with soil microbes facilitating germination with increasing stress for 5 of the 12 species tested, and none of the species exhibiting the opposite trend. Support for the SGH was not predicted by either the plant hosts' habitat specialization or germination frequency. In contrast to germination, biomass results showed little support for the SGH, with four of 12 species refuting and one species supporting SGH predictions. Taken together, our study documents that interactions between the soil microbial community and plant species along a stress gradient can support the SGH, but emphasizes that these effects are life-history-stage dependent. This work also identifies a common mechanism (germination facilitation) by which microbes can benefit plant species in stressful habitats.

Delayed life history effects (DLHEs) occur when fitness in one life stage affects fitness in subsequent life stages. Given their biphasic life cycle, pond-breeding amphibians provide a natural system for studying DLHEs, although these effects are not restricted to species with biphasic life histories. In this study, we used multiple mark-recapture techniques enabled by a large trapping array to monitor components of fitness and resulting DLHEs in a population of the endangered California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense). We found that DLHEs are prominent across all life stage transitions and that there is variation in whether selection acts primarily at the individual or cohort level. We also demonstrated that there is more than an order of magnitude variation in mean cohort fitness, providing tremendous variation for DLHEs to act upon. We documented an evolutionary trade-off between mass at emergence and date of emergence, which may play a role in maintaining the variation in mass (fitness) at emergence. A literature review revealed that such high levels of intercohort variation occur in many other pond-breeding amphibians, and that appropriately documenting the magnitude of intercohort variation requires long-term studies (roughly two population turnovers). Given the profound effect that DLHEs can have on population dynamics, quantifying intercohort variation in mean fitness and the level(s) at which selection acts will be very important for developing accurate models of population dynamics. In general, when developing models of population dynamics, more attention should be paid to variation in mean fitness and not just variation in total numbers.

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