Tamping is one of the major activities undertaken by railway maintenance managers to recover the track geometry condition. Modelling the effectiveness of tamping along with track geometry degradation is essential for long-term prediction of track geometry behaviour. The aim of this study is to analyse the effect of tamping on the different track geometry measurements, i.e. longitudinal level, alignment and cant, based on inspection car records from a part of the Main Western Line in Sweden. To model recovery after tamping, a probabilistic approach is applied. The track geometry condition before tamping was considered as the dominant factor for modelling the model parameters. Correlation analysis was performed to measure the linear relation between the recoveries of the different geometry measures. The results show a moderate correlation between the recovery of the longitudinal level and that of the cant, and a weak correlation between the recovery of the longitudinal level and that of the alignment. Linear regression and Wiener process were also applied to model track geometry degradation and to obtain degradation rates. The effect of tamping on degradation rate was analysed. It was observed that degradation rate increased after tamping.
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