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Switching energy demand for transport from liquid fuels to electricity is the most promising way to significantly improve air quality and reduce transport emissions. Previous studies have shown this is possible, that by 2035 the economics of alternative powertrain and energy vectors will have converged. However, they do not address whether the transition is likely or plausible. Using the UK as a case study, we present a systems dynamics model based study informed by transition theory and explore the effects of technology progress, policy-making, user preferences and; for the first time, automated vehicles on this transition. We are not trying to predict the future but to highlight what is necessary in order for different scenarios to become more or less likely. Worryingly we show that current policies with the expected technology progress and expectations of vehicle buyers are insufficient to reach global targets. Faster technology progress, strong financial incentives or a change in vehicle buyer expectations are crucial but still insufficient. In contrast, the biggest switch to alternatively fuelled vehicles could be achieved by the introduction of automated vehicles. The implications will affect policy makers, automotive manufactures, technology developers and broader society.

Energy system decarbonisation and changing consumer behaviours will create and destroy new markets in the electric power sector. This means that the energy industry will have to adapt their business models in order to capture these pools of value. Recent work explores how changes to the utility business model that include digital, decentralised or service-based offers could both disrupt the market and accelerate low carbon transitions. However, it is unclear whether these business models are technologically feasible. To answer this question, we undertook an expert panel study to determine the readiness levels of key enabling technologies. The result is an analysis of what technologies may hinder electricity business model innovation and where more research or development is necessary. The study shows that none of the business models that are compatible with a low carbon power sector are facing technology barriers that cannot be overcome, but there is still work to be done in the domain of system integration. We conclude that, especially in the field of energy system coordination and operation, there is a need for comprehensive demonstration trials which can iteratively combine and test information and communications technology (ICT) solutions. This form of innovation support would require a new approach to energy system trials.

© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.The current mobility system, dominated by fossil fuel powered automobiles, is under increasing pressure due to its environmental impact. To address this issue there is a need for a transition of the system towards one that is more sustainable, including the introduction of car technologies that allow a decrease in fuel consumption and the substitution of fossil fuels as primary energy source. Due to the stability of the current automotive industry and the dominance of the internal combustion engine technology, it is expected that the incumbent firms and their activities will play a crucial role in the transition. Policy makers have therefore introduced a variety of policies to encourage the industry to provide suitable solutions. We have conducted a micro-level analysis of how the three main German car manufacturers have changed their activities in the field of low emission vehicle technologies in response to national/international events and policy making. Our analysis suggests that policy makers only have limited influence on the type of disruptive solution that is chosen by these individual companies and that activities related to solutions that were not familiar to the individual car manufacturer were mainly induced by internal or external champions. Still, while the existence of regulatory policies allowed such activities to succeed, on its own it only encouraged the industry to work on incremental solutions based upon the knowledge already possessed

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What needs to change in the United Kingdom energy system, to allow low carbon business models to thrive?' Earlier work by the authors has reported that up to £21bn of new financial value could be available to electricity utilities by 2050, in a low-carbon UK power sector. This represents up to 30% of future electricity markets. To capture new value, electricity utility business models need to evolve. This research used an elite 'decision theatre' method, in the UK, USA, and Europe, to decide on the most important changes required to the energy system to enable new [low-carbon] utility business models to thrive. The results show that there is substantial agreement on the five requirements for change, these are: (1) Clear national heat and electric transport strategies; (2) Commitment to sufficient carbon prices; (3) Simpler, principles-based regulation across the energy value chain; (4) Accessible markets for flexibility and other energy services; and (5) Managing consumers' exposure to risk. These were the changes that participants considered most important to foster low-carbon utility business model innovation. This work suggests focusing on businessStephen Hall a,⁎