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This paper presents a novel method that uses online ratings to predict business failures.

Purpose Trading on electricity markets occurs such that the price settlement takes place before delivery, often day-ahead. In practice, these prices are highly volatile as they largely depend upon a range of variables such as electricity demand and the feed-in from renewable energy sources. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to provide accurate forecasts.. Design/methodology/approach This paper aims at comparing different predictors stemming from supply-side (solar and wind power generation), demand-side, fuel-related and economic influences. For this reason, this paper implements a broad range of non-linear models from machine learning and draw upon the information-fusion-based sensitivity analysis. Findings This study disentangles the respective relevance of each predictor. This study shows that external predictors altogether decrease root mean squared errors by up to 21.96%. A Diebold-Mariano test statistically proves that the forecasting accuracy of the proposed machine learning models is superior. Research limitations/implications The performance gain from including more predictors might be larger than from a better model. Future research should place attention on expanding the data basis in electricity price forecasting. Practical implications When developing pricing models, practitioners can achieve reasonable performance with a simple model (e.g. seasonal-autoregressive moving-average) that is built upon a wide range of predictors. Originality/value The benefit of adding further predictors has only recently received traction; however, little is known about how the individual variables contribute to improving forecasts in machine learning.

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Points-of-interest (POIs; i.e., restaurants, bars, landmarks, and other entities) are common in web-mined data: they greatly explain the spatial distributions of urban phenomena. The conventional modeling approach relies upon feature engineering, yet it ignores the spatial structure among POIs. In order to overcome this shortcoming, the present paper proposes a novel spatial model for explaining spatial distributions based on web-mined POIs. Our key contributions are: (1) We present a rigorous yet highly interpretable formalization in order to model the influence of POIs on a given outcome variable. Specifically, we accommodate the spatial distributions of both the outcome and POIs. In our case, this modeled by the sum of latent Gaussian processes. (2) In contrast to previous literature, our model infers the influence of POIs without feature engineering, instead we model the influence of POIs via distance-weighted kernel functions with fully learnable parameterizations. (3) We propose a scalable learning algorithm based on sparse variational approximation. For this purpose, we derive a tailored evidence lower bound (ELBO) and, for appropriate likelihoods, we even show that an analytical expression can be obtained. This allows fast and accurate computation of the ELBO. Finally, the value of our approach for web mining is demonstrated in two real-world case studies. Our findings provide substantial improvements over state-of-the-art baselines with regard to both predictive and, in particular, explanatory performance. Altogether, this yields a novel spatial model for leveraging webmined POIs. Within the context of location-based social networks, it promises an extensive range of new insights and use cases. CCS CONCEPTS • Mathematics of computing → Variational methods; • Computing methodologies → Gaussian processes; • Information systems → Location based services; Web mining.