Risk analysis came to the forefront for plant protection organizations with the adoption of the SPS Agreement in 1995. Risk - the probability of an adverse event, and the magnitude of the consequences - and uncertainty (which is a part of risk) can be measured and described. We use risk analysis - a systematic way of gathering information, analysing information and making recommendations - as means to communicate about risk with stakeholders. In analysing risk, we need to identify adverse events, make judgements regarding how likely those events are to happen, the magnitude of the consequences and our level of uncertainty. We must be ever mindful that risk analysis should be science-based, defensible and transparent. Some of the best guidance in this respect comes from Morgan and Henrion (1990), who provide the Ten Commandments for good policy analysis: 1. Do your homework with the literature, experts and users. 2. Let the problem drive the analysis. 3. Make the analysis as simple as possible, but no simpler. 4. Identify all significant assumptions. 5. Be explicit about decision criteria and policy strategies. 6. Be explicit about uncertainties. 7. Perform systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. 8. Iteratively refine the problem statement and the analysis. 9. Document clearly and completely. 10. Expose the work to peer review.
In this chapter we learned about the different applications of pest risk analysis. NPPOs use pest risk analysis for a variety of reasons - analysing risks associated with pathways (including commodities); analysing risks associated with specific pests; and for providing analytical support for new or revised policies. In addition, there are analytical methods that have been specially adapted for prioritizing resources. In short, almost every aspect of work that an NPPO must carry out can be supported by risk analysis - from making decisions on how to spend resources, to deciding on measures for imported commodities. The applications of pest risk analysis in plant protection continue to expand as NPPOs learn to apply pest risk analysis beyond the traditional applications for trade.
As risk analysts, we must be mindful that our work is always subject to scrutiny - from scientists, trading partners, industry groups, stakeholders and other interested parties. Because evidence and information form the backbone of any analysis, we should do our utmost to ensure that we gather the best information possible in order to support our analysis. And not only do we want to have the best information we can find, we want to use that information accurately and transparently. The rules below outline good practices for gathering, analysing and using information and evidence in pest risk analyses (Holtz, 2011, Rules to live by for preparing defendable risk assessments - experiences learned from two 'highly influential' risk assessments. Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory, USDA-APHIS-PPQ, PowerPoint presentation). 1. Always use the highest quality information available - remember that peer reviewed journals published by reputable groups are usually the best sources. 2. Avoid citing information that you are not able to validate first hand - if using a review article, compendium or database, it is best to go back to the original sources used and use the original sources directly. 3. All scientific or technical statements should be supported by appropriate scientific or technical references. Statements and conclusions in the analysis must be supported by appropriate evidence. Avoid making statements or conclusions that go beyond what the original evidence can support. 4. Ensure that all references are properly cited. It is also highly advisable to retain copies of references for record-keeping. If necessary, the original references can be consulted again if questions are raised about the analysis. 5. If possible, use peer review for your analyses - either (or both) internal and external reviews ensure accuracy and scientific rigour, and may catch errors, mistakes in judgements or oversights before the pest risk analysis is finalized.
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