Tuomainen (2021) Effects of data preprocessing on results of the epidemiological analysis of coronary heart disease and behaviour-related risk factors,

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Objective The purpose of this study was to discover how considering multiplicative, additive, and interactive effects modifies results of a prospective cohort study on coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence and its main risk factors. Material and methods The Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor (KIHD) Study provided the study material, 2682 Eastern Finnish middle-aged men, followed since the 1980s. We applied multiplicative and additive survival models together with different statistical metrics and confidence intervals for risk ratios and risk differences to estimate the nature of associations. Results The mean (SD) follow-up time among men who were free of CHD at baseline ( n = 1958) was 21.4 (10.4) years, and 717 (37%) of them had the disease and 301 (15%) died for CHD before the end of follow-up. All tested non-modifiable and modifiable risk factors statistically significantly predicted CHD incidence. We detected three interactions: circulating low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) × age, obesity × age, and obesity × smoking of which LDL-C × age was the most evident one. High LDL-C increased the risk of CHD more among men younger than 50 [risk ratio (RR) 2.10] than those older than 50 (RR 1.22). LDL-C status was the only additive covariate. The additive effect of high LDL-C increased almost linearly up to 18 years and then reached a plateau. The simple multiplicative survival model stressed glycemic status as the strongest modifiable risk factor for developing CHD [hazard ratio (HR) for diabetes vs. normoglycemia was 2.69], whereas the model considering interactions and time dependence emphasised the role of LDL-C status (HR for high LDL-C vs. lower than borderline was 4.43). Age was the strongest non-modifiable predictor. Conclusions Including covariate interactions and time dependence in survival models potentially refine results of epidemiological analyses and ease to define the order of importance across CHD risk factors. KEY MESSAGES Including covariate interactions and time dependence in survival models potentially refine results of epidemiological analyses on coronary heart disease. Including covariate interactions and time dependence in survival models potentially ease to define the order of importance across coronary heart disease risk factors.

When identifying and comparing forecasting models, there may be a risk that poorly selected criteria could lead to wrong conclusions. Thus, it is important to know how sensitive the results are to the selection of criteria. This contribution aims to study the sensitivity of the identification and comparison results to the choice of criteria. It compares typically applied criteria for tuning and performance assessment of load forecasting methods with estimated costs caused by the forecasting errors. The focus is on short-term forecasting of the loads of energy systems. The estimated costs comprise electricity market costs and network costs. We estimate the electricity market costs by assuming that the forecasting errors cause balancing errors and consequently balancing costs to the market actors. The forecasting errors cause network costs by overloading network components thus increasing losses and reducing the component lifetime or alternatively increase operational margins to avoid those overloads. The lifetime loss of insulators, and thus also the components, is caused by heating according to the law of Arrhenius. We also study consumer costs. The results support the assumption that there is a need to develop and use additional and case-specific performance criteria for electricity load forecasting.

If conventional feature selection methods do not show sufficient effectiveness, alternative algorithmic schemes might be used. In this paper we propose an evolutionary feature selection technique based on the two-criterion optimization model. To diminish the drawbacks of genetic algorithms, which are applied as optimizers, we design a parallel multicriteria heuristic procedure based on an island model. The performance of the proposed approach was investigated on the Speech-based Emotion Recognition Problem, which reflects one of the most essential points in the sphere of human-machine communications. A number of multilingual corpora (German, English and Japanese) were involved in the experiments. According to the results obtained, a high level of emotion recognition was achieved (up to a 12.97% relative improvement compared with the best F-score value on the full set of attributes).

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Background and Purpose:In every organization, project management raises many different decision-making problems, a large proportion of which can be efficiently solved using specific decision-making support systems. Yet such kinds of problems are always a challenge since there is no time-efficient or computationally efficient algorithm to solve them as a result of their complexity. In this study, we consider the problem of optimal financial investment. In our solution, we take into account the following organizational resource and project characteristics: profits, costs and risks. Design/Methodology/Approach: The decision-making problem is reduced to a multi-criteria 0-1 knapsack problem. This implies that we need to find a non-dominated set of alternative solutions, which are a trade-off between maximizing incomes and minimizing risks. At the same time, alternatives must satisfy constraints. This leads to a constrained two-criterion optimization problem in the Boolean space. To cope with the peculiarities and high complexity of the problem, evolution-based algorithms with an island meta-heuristic are applied as an alternative to conventional techniques. Results: The problem in hand was reduced to a two-criterion unconstrained extreme problem and solved with different evolution-based multi-objective optimization heuristics. Next, we applied a proposed meta-heuristic combining the particular algorithms and causing their interaction in a cooperative and collaborative way. The obtained results showed that the island heuristic outperformed the original ones based on the values of a specific metric, thus showing the representativeness of Pareto front approximations. Having more representative approximations, decision-makers have more alternative project portfolios corresponding to different risk and profit estimations. Since these criteria are conflicting, when choosing an alternative with an estimated high profit, decision-makers follow a strategy with an estimated high risk and vice versa. Conclusion: In the present paper, the project portfolio decision-making problem was reduced to a 0-1 knapsack constrained multi-objective optimization problem. The algorithm investigation confirms that the use of the island meta-heuristic significantly improves the performance of genetic algorithms, thereby providing an efficient tool for Financial Responsibility Centres Management.Keywords: 0-1 multi-objective constrained knapsack problem; project management portfolio problem; multi-objective evolution-based optimization algorithms; collaborative and cooperative meta-heuristics

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