Accompanying the aging of populations worldwide, and increased survival with chronic diseases, the incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) are rising, justifying the term global epidemic. This multifactorial arrhythmia is intertwined with common concomitant cardiovascular diseases, which share classical cardiovascular risk factors. Targeted prevention programs are largely missing. Prevention needs to start at an early age with primordial interventions at the population level. The public health dimension of AF motivates research in modifiable AF risk factors and improved precision in AF prediction and management. In this review, we summarize current knowledge in an attempt to untangle these multifaceted associations from an epidemiological perspective. We discuss disease trends, preventive opportunities offered by underlying risk factors and concomitant disorders, current developments in diagnosis and risk prediction, and prognostic implications of AF and its complications. Finally, we review current technological (eg, eHealth) and methodological (artificial intelligence) advances and their relevance for future prevention and disease management.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasingly common in the general population. It often coincides with myocardial infarction (MI) and heart failure (HF) which are also diseases in older adults. All three conditions share common cardiovascular risk factors. While hypertension and obesity are central risk factors for all three diseases, smoking and diabetes appear to have less impact on AF. To date, age is the single most important risk factor for AF in the general population. Further, epidemiological studies suggest a strong association of AF to MI and HF. The underlying pathophysiological mechanisms are complex and not fully understood. Both MI and HF can trigger development of AF, mainly by promoting structural and electrical atrial remodeling. On the other hand, AF facilitates HF and MI development via multiple mechanisms, resulting in a vicious circle of cardiac impairment and adverse cardiovascular prognosis. Consequently, to prevent and treat the coincidence of AF and HF or MI a strict optimization of cardiovascular risk factors is required.

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Background/Aim Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major health problem and causes heart failure and stroke. Pathophysiological mechanisms indicate a link with oral health including periodontitis (PD), but supporting data are scarce. The aim was to investigate the link between features of oral health and the prevalence of AF. Methods This cross-sectional analysis of the Hamburg City Health Study included 5,634 participants with complete data on their PD and AF status. AF was assessed via self-reported questionnaire or medically diagnosed by standard 12-lead resting ECG. The oral health examination included full-mouth measurements of the dental plaque index (PI), the clinical attachment loss (CAL) at 6 sites per tooth, the bleeding on probing (BOP) and the decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) index. Descriptive analyses for all variables stratified by the status of PD were performed. To test for an association between prevalent PD and prevalent AF, multivariable logistic regression models were used. Mediation analysis was used to test if interleukin-6 (IL-6) and/or C-reactive protein (CRP) mediated the association between PD and AF. Results Atrial fibrillation (prevalence: 5.6%) and the severity of PD (prevalence: moderate: 57.7%, severe: 18.9%) increased with age in men and women. Prevalent severe PD, CAL ≥3 mm, PI, and BOP were all associated with prevalent AF in unadjusted regression analysis. However, no association except for PI (odds ratio (OR): 1.22, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1–1.35, p<0.001) could be observed after adjusting for age, sex, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), body mass index, diabetes, smoking, and educational level. Participants brushing their teeth at least twice daily had a lower AF prevalence compared with those brushing only once daily. Hs-CRP, IL-6, and the odds of AF increased as a function of PD severity grades in unadjusted analysis. However, neither the DMFT index nor IL-6 or CRP was associated with AF after adjusting for age and sex. Mediation analyses could not provide support for the hypothesis that IL-6 or CRP acted as mediator of the association between prevalent PD and prevalent AF. Conclusion The study shows an association between prevalent AF and increased dental plaque levels indicated by a higher PI. In contrast, an association of prevalent PD with prevalent AF after adjustments for several confounders could not be demonstrated. Further studies are necessary to investigate the mechanisms underlying poor oral hygiene and AF as well as the influence of improved oral hygiene on AF onset.

Background Although myocardial infarction (MI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are frequent comorbidities and share common cardiovascular risk factors, the direction and strength of the association of the risk factors with disease onset, subsequent disease incidence, and mortality are not completely understood. Methods and Results In pooled multivariable Cox regression analyses, we examined temporal relations of disease onset and identified predictors of MI, AF, and all‐cause mortality in 108 363 individuals (median age, 46.0 years; 48.2% men) free of MI and AF at baseline from 6 European population‐based cohorts. During a maximum follow‐up of 10.0 years, 3558 (3.3%) individuals were diagnosed exclusively with MI, 1922 (1.8%) with AF but no MI, and 491 (0.5%) individuals developed both MI and AF. Association of sex, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, and diabetes appeared to be stronger with incident MI than with AF, whereas increasing age and body mass index showed a higher risk for incident AF. Total cholesterol and daily smoking were significantly related to incident MI but not AF. Combined population attributable fraction of cardiovascular risk factors was >70% for incident MI, whereas it was only 27% for AF. Subsequent MI after AF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.68; 95% CI, 1.03–2.74) and subsequent AF after MI (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.31–2.34) both significantly increased overall mortality risk. Conclusions We observed different associations of cardiovascular risk factors with both diseases indicating distinct pathophysiological pathways. Subsequent diagnoses of MI and AF significantly increased mortality risk.

Background and Purpose: Stroke is a common cause of death and a leading cause of disability and morbidity. Stroke risk assessment remains a challenge, but circulating biomarkers may improve risk prediction. Controversial evidence is available on the predictive ability of troponin concentrations and the risk of stroke in the community. Furthermore, reports on the predictive value of troponin concentrations for different stroke subtypes are scarce. Methods: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hsTnI) concentrations were assessed in 82 881 individuals (median age, 50.7 years; 49.7% men) free of stroke or myocardial infarction at baseline from 9 prospective European community cohorts. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to determine relative risks, followed by measures of discrimination and reclassification using 10-fold cross-validation to control for overoptimism. Follow-up was based upon linkage with national hospitalization registries and causes of death registries. Results: Over a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 3033 individuals were diagnosed with incident nonfatal or fatal stroke (n=1654 ischemic strokes, n=612 hemorrhagic strokes, and n=767 indeterminate strokes). In multivariable regression models, hsTnI concentrations were associated with overall stroke (hazard ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.10–1.21]), ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.09–1.21]), and hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.01–1.20]). Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical cardiovascular risk factors (C indices, 0.809, 0.840, and 0.736 for overall, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke, respectively) increased the C index significantly but modestly. In individuals with an intermediate 10-year risk (5%–20%), the net reclassification improvement for overall stroke was 0.038 ( P =0.021). Conclusions: Elevated hsTnI concentrations are associated with an increased risk of incident stroke in the community, irrespective of stroke subtype. Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical risk factors only modestly improved estimation of 10-year risk of stroke in the overall cohort but might be of some value in individuals at an intermediate risk.

Aims Classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), biomarkers, and common genetic variation have been suggested for risk assessment of atrial fibrillation (AF). To evaluate their clinical potential, we analysed their individual and combined ability of AF prediction. Methods and results In N = 6945 individuals of the FINRISK 1997 cohort, we assessed the predictive value of CVRF, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and 145 recently identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) combined in a developed polygenic risk score (PRS) for incident AF. Over a median follow-up of 17.8 years, n = 551 participants (7.9%) developed AF. In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, NT-proBNP [hazard ratio (HR) of log transformed values 4.77; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.66–6.22; P &lt; 0.001] and the PRS (HR 2.18; 95% CI 1.88–2.53; P &lt; 0.001) were significantly related to incident AF. The discriminatory ability improved asymptotically with increasing numbers of SNPs. Compared with a clinical model, AF risk prediction was significantly improved by addition of NT-proBNP and the PRS. The C-statistic for the combination of CVRF, NT-proBNP, and the PRS reached 0.83 compared with 0.79 for CVRF only (P &lt; 0.001). A replication in the Dutch Prevention of REnal and Vascular ENd-stage Disease (PREVEND) cohort revealed similar results. Comparing the highest vs. lowest quartile, NT-proBNP and the PRS both showed a more than three-fold increased AF risk. Age remained the strongest risk factor with a 16.7-fold increased risk of AF in the highest quartile. Conclusion The PRS and the established biomarker NT-proBNP showed comparable predictive ability. Both provided incremental predictive value over standard clinical variables. Further improvements for the PRS are likely with the discovery of additional SNPs.

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