Climate change is amongst the main threats to biodiversity. Considering extant mammals endured Quaternary climate change, we analyzed the extent to which this past change predicts current mammals’ extinction risk at global and biogeographical scales. We accessed range dynamics by modeling the potential distribution of all extant terrestrial mammals in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) and in current climate conditions and used extinction risk from IUCN red list. We built General Linear Mixed-Effects Models to test the magnitude with which the variation in geographic range (ΔRange) and a proxy for abundance (ΔSuitability) between the LGM and present-day predicts current mammal’s extinction risk. We found past climate change most strongly reduced the geographical range and climatic suitability of threatened rather than non-threatened mammals. Quaternary range contractions and reduced suitability explain around 40% of species extinction risk, particularly for small-bodied mammals. At global and biogeographical scales, all groups that suffered significant Quaternary range contractions now contain a greater proportion of threatened species when compared to groups whose ranges did not significantly contract. This reinforces the importance of using historical range contractions as a key predictor of extinction risk for species in the present and future climate change scenarios and supports current efforts to fight climate change for biodiversity conservation.
Sloths and anteaters form the monophyletic order Pilosa, which is currently represented by only 16 extant species distributed exclusively in the Neotropics. This present‐day low species richness is an inheritance of the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, where over 65 Pilosa species known from the fossil record went extinct. The large number of species lost in the recent past suggests that this group is greatly vulnerable to extinction. Here, we propose long‐term priority conservation areas for the order Pilosa, considering different future climate change scenarios, biotic stability, and the multiple dimensions of the group's biodiversity, such as species richness, species endemism, and phylogenetic diversity. Projections of species distribution for future scenarios show increased fragmentation and clear habitat loss as the Amazon Forest is replaced by savanna‐like habitats. Conservation solutions were highly congruent for the different dimensions of biodiversity, with priority areas emerging mainly in the Atlantic Forest, Amazonian wetlands, highlands of Ecuador, and the Central American isthmus. Expanding the currently protected areas network by 6% with the proposed priority areas, independently of which future climatic scenario is considered, can increase sloths and anteaters' coverage in the future by 12%. As a group of high phylogenetic and ecological importance, future conservation planning should deliberately aim to protect areas favorable to Pilosa, especially given the current scenario of environmental dismantling and neglect of critical Neotropical biomes. Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material.
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak is the biggest public health challenge in the last 100 years. No successful pharmaceutical treatment is yet available, thus effective public health interventions to contain COVID-19 include social distancing, isolation and quarantine measures. However the efficiency of these containment measures varied among countries and even within states in the same country. Despite Brazil being deeply affected by coronavirus, the federal government never proposed a coordinated action to control COVID-19 and Brazilian states, which are autonomous, each imposed different containment measures. The state of Goiás declared strict social distancing measures in March 13, but gradually relaxed many of its first measures due specially to public pressure. Here we use a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model combined with Bayesian inference and a time-dependent spreading rate to assess how past state-level interventions affected the spread of COVID-19 in Goiás. The interventions succeeded in decreasing the transmission rate in the state, however, after the third intervention the rate remained positive and exponential. Thus, other stricter interventions were made necessary to avoid the growth of new cases and a collapse in the health system. Governmental interventions need to be taken seriously by the population in order for them have the proposed outcome. Our results reflect the population's disregard with the measures imposed and the need for cooperation between governments and its citizens in the fight against COVID-19.
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