Climate change is driving latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in species distribution worldwide, leading to novel species assemblages. Lags between these biotic responses and contemporary climate changes have been reported for plants and animals. Theoretically, the magnitude of these lags should be greatest in lowland areas, where the velocity of climate change is expected to be much greater than that in highland areas. We compared temperature trends to temperatures reconstructed from plant assemblages (observed in 76,634 surveys) over a 44-year period in France (1965-2008). Here we report that forest plant communities had responded to 0.54 °C of the effective increase of 1.07 °C in highland areas (500-2,600 m above sea level), while they had responded to only 0.02 °C of the 1.11 °C warming trend in lowland areas. There was a larger temperature lag (by 3.1 times) between the climate and plant community composition in lowland forests than in highland forests. The explanation of such disparity lies in the following properties of lowland, as compared to highland, forests: the higher proportion of species with greater ability for local persistence as the climate warms, the reduced opportunity for short-distance escapes, and the greater habitat fragmentation. Although mountains are currently considered to be among the ecosystems most threatened by climate change (owing to mountaintop extinction), the current inertia of plant communities in lowland forests should also be noted, as it could lead to lowland biotic attrition.

Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36-55% of alpine species, 31-51% of subalpine species and 19-46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070-2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation

Summary1. There is a rising interest in the role of species diversity in ecosystem functioning and services, including productivity. Yet, how the diversity-productivity relationship depends on species identity and abiotic conditions remains a challenging issue. 2. We analysed mixture effects on species productivity along site productivity gradients, calculated from a set of abiotic factors, in two biogeographic contexts (highlands and lowlands). We compared the productivity of 5 two-species mixtures (i.e. 10 cases of mixed species) with that of monocultures of the same species. Five main European tree species were considered: sessile oak (Quercus petraea Liebl.), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst). 3. Our data set was compiled from the 2006 to 2010 French National Forest Inventory data base and covers 2361 plots including pure and mixed stands. 4. Overall productivity of mixtures in highlands, that is European beech-Norway spruce, European beech-silver fir and to a lesser extent, silver fir-Norway spruce, was found to be higher than expected from the productivity of corresponding monospecific stands. Overyielding was mainly due to European beech for the first two mixtures and to silver fir for the third one. 5. No effect of mixture was found for sessile oak-Scots pine and sessile oak-European beech stands in lowlands. Overyielding of sessile oak mixed with Scots pine was not strong enough to significantly increase overall stand productivity. Overyielding of European beech was balanced by an underyielding of sessile oak. 6. The mixture effect changed along site productivity gradients for six cases out of the 10 studied, with a stronger and positive effect on sites with low productivity. The magnitude of this change along site productivity gradients varied up to 89% depending on the tree species. 7. Synthesis. The nature of species interaction in mixtures with regard to productivity changes with species assemblage and abiotic conditions. Overyielding is strongest when species grow in highlands on less productive sites. A negative link between mixture effect and site productivity was found, in line with the stress-gradient hypothesis.

Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range‐wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density (N ) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence probability are those with high densities but slow intrinsic population growth rates. The uncertain relationships between demography and occurrence probability suggests caution when linking species distribution and demographic models.

Aim  To estimate the relative importance of climate and soil nutritional variables for predicting the distribution of Acer campestre (L.) in French forests. Location  France. Methods  We used presence/absence information for A. campestre in 3286 forest plots scattered all over France, coupled with climatic and edaphic data. More than 150 climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, evapotranspiration, water balance) were obtained using a digital elevation model (DEM) and a geographical information system (GIS). Six direct soil variables (pH, C/N ratio, base saturation rate, concentrations of calcium, magnesium and potassium) were available from EcoPlant, a phytoecological data base for French forests. Using a forward stepwise logistic regression technique, we derived two distinct predictive models for A. campestre; the first with climatic variables alone and the second with both climatic and edaphic variables. Results  The distribution of A. campestre was poorly modelled when including only climatic variables. The inclusion of edaphic variables significantly improved the quality of predictions for this species, allowing prediction of patches of presence/absence within the study region. Main conclusion  Soil nutritional variables may improve the performance of fine‐scale (grain) plant species distribution models.