This article summarizes a joint research project undertaken under the Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (RMS) banner to investigate some of the possible approaches for agricultural risk modeling in China. Two modeling approaches were investigated-the simulated weather crop index and the burn yield analysis approach. The study was limited to Hunan Province and a single crop-rice. Both modeling approaches were dealt with probabilistically and were able to produce probabilistic risk metrics. Illustrative model outputs are also presented. The article discusses the robustness of the modeling approaches and their dependence on the availability, access to, and quality of weather and yield data. We offer our perspective on the requirements for models and platforms for agricultural risk quantification in China in order to respond to the needs of all stakeholders in agricultural risk transfer. Keywords Agricultural risk insurance Á Agricultural risk modeling Á Burn yield analysis Á Catastrophe risk Á China Á Simulated weather crop index
SUMMARYThe strong ground motion produced by the 17 October, 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in northern California was recorded at over 100 stations. Accelerograms were generated at sites with significantly different geology, including land fill and soft sedimentary soil sites. In this study, the attenuation characteristics of the peak vertical and horizontal ground accelerations are studied for freefield recording conditions within 100 km of the source by the application of a non-linear multi-regression procedure. Two sets of attenuation models for weighted and unweighted observations are compared with those reported by other investigators for this earthquake and for regional and worldwide data. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) observations for this earthquake exceed previous predictions of standard attenuation models, particularly beyond 30 km (approximately 60 per cent at 50 km). Higher attenuation of the vertical component compared to the horizontal is confirmed.The regression considers site geology as an independent parameter. Soil sites display as much as 23 per cent amplification relative to rock sites for horizontal PGA and as much as 40 per cent for vertical PGA. Amplification of the ground motion at sites characterized by soft soil geology is examined by comparing the recorded PGA with the corresponding prediction at sites underlain by stiff soil. Eight of ten of the soft soil sites display significant amplification relative to stiff soil sites (as much as 300 per cent for horizontal and 200 per cent for vertical components). Particular attention is paid to the so-called anomalous observations at distances beyond 50 km. The anomalous observations between 50 and 80 km may be attributed to various factors such as geology, basic geometry, azimuthal dependence, source mechanism and normal scatter of observations.
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