[1] We examine the implications of the widely used, force-free, constant-a flux rope model of interplanetary magnetic clouds for the evolution of these mesoscale (fraction 1 AU) structures in the heliosphere, with special emphasis on the inner ( 1 AU) heliosphere. We employ primarily events observed by the Helios 1 and 2 probes between 0.3 and 1 AU in the ascending and maximum phases of solar cycle 21 and by Wind at 1 AU in a similar phase of solar activity cycle. We supplement these data by observations from other spacecraft (e.g., Voyagers 1 and 2, Pioneers 10 and 11, and others). Our data set consists of 130 events. We explore three different approaches. In the first, we work with ensemble averages, binning the results into radial segments of width 0.1 AU in the range 0.3 r h 1 AU. Doing this, we find that in the inner heliosphere the modeled average central axial field strength, hB 0 i, varies with heliospheric distance r h as hB 0 i [nT] = 18.1 Á r h À1.64 [AU], and the average diameter increases quasilinearly as hDi [AU] = 0.23 r h 1.14 . The orientation of the axis of the underlying magnetic flux tube in our data set is generally found to lie along the east-west direction and in the ecliptic plane at all values of r h , but there is considerable scatter about these average directions. In the second, we monitor the evolution of magnetic clouds in snapshot fashion, using seven spacecraft alignments. The results are in broad agreement with the statistics reported under step 1. In the final approach, we obtain the functional dependence of B 0 and D predicted by an analytic expression for a freely expanding Lundquist flux tube. We find D to vary linearly with r h , broadly similar to that obtained under approach 1. The maximum field strength scales as r h À2 compared to a r h À1.3dependence obtained from statistics. We compare our findings with those of Bothmer and Schwenn (1998), who used a different methodology. The results obtained form a good background to the forthcoming Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and Sentinels missions and to multispacecraft studies of magnetic clouds.

In a case study (June 6-7, 2008) we report on how the internal structure of a coronal mass ejection (CME) at 1 AU can be anticipated from remote observations of white-light images of the heliosphere. Favorable circumstances are the absence of fast equatorial solar wind streams and a low CME velocity which allow us to relate the imaging and in-situ data in a straightforward way. The STEREO-B spacecraft encountered typical signatures of a magnetic flux rope inside an interplanetary CME (ICME) whose axis was inclined at 45 • to the solar equatorial plane. Various CME direction-finding techniques yield consistent results to within 15 • . Further, remote images from STEREO-A show that (1) the CME is unambiguously connected to the ICME and can be tracked all the way to 1 AU, (2) the particular arc-like morphology of the CME points to an inclined axis, and (3) the three-part structure of the CME may be plausibly related to the in situ data. This is a first step in predicting both the direction of travel and the internal structure of CMEs from complete remote observations between the Sun and 1 AU, which is one of the main requirements for forecasting the geo-effectiveness of CMEs.Subject headings: Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs)-solar-terrestrial relations-interplanetary medium

On 2010 August 1, the northern solar hemisphere underwent significant activity that involved a complex set of active regions near central meridian with, nearby, two large prominences and other more distant active regions. This activity culminated in the eruption of four major coronal mass ejections (CMEs), effects of which were detected at Earth and other solar system bodies. Recognizing the unprecedented wealth of data from the wide range of spacecraft that were available-providing the potential for us to explore methods for CME identification and tracking, and to assess issues regarding onset and planetary impact-we present a comprehensive analysis of this sequence of CMEs. We show that, for three of the four major CMEs, onset is associated with prominence eruption, while the remaining CME appears to be closely associated with a flare. Using instrumentation on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft, three of the CMEs could be tracked out to elongations beyond 50 • ; their directions and speeds have been determined by various methods, not least to assess their potential for Earth impact. The analysis techniques that can be applied to the other CME, the first to erupt, are more limited since that CME was obscured by the subsequent, much faster event before it had propagated far from the Sun; we discuss the speculation that these two CMEs interact. The consistency of the results, derived from the wide variety of methods applied to such an extraordinarily complete data set, has allowed us to converge on robust interpretations of the CME onsets and their arrivals at 1 AU.

We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self‐similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide‐angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first‐order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun‐Earth L5 point.

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One of the goals of the NASA Solar TErestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) mission is to study the feasibility of forecasting the direction, arrival time, and internal structure of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from a vantage point outside the Sun-Earth line. Through a case study, we discuss the arrival time calculation of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) in the ecliptic plane using data from STEREO/SECCHI at large elongations from the Sun in combination with different geometric assumptions about the ICME front shape [fixed-Φ (FP): a point and harmonic mean (HM): a circle]. These forecasting techniques use single-spacecraft imaging data and are based on the assumption of constant velocity and direction. We show that for the slow (350 km s −1 ) ICME on 2009 February 13-18, observed at quadrature by the two STEREO spacecraft, the results for the arrival time given by the HM approximation are more accurate by 12 hr than those for FP in comparison to in situ observations of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters by STEREO/IMPACT/PLASTIC, and by 6 hr for the arrival time at Venus Express (MAG). We propose that the improvement is directly related to the ICME front shape being more accurately described by HM for an ICME with a low inclination of its symmetry axis to the ecliptic. In this case, the ICME has to be tracked to >30 • elongation to obtain arrival time errors <± 5 hr. A newly derived formula for calculating arrival times with the HM method is also useful for a triangulation technique assuming the same geometry.

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We present results on the geometry of a magnetic cloud (MC) on 23 May 2007 from a comprehensive analysis of Wind and STEREO observations. We first apply a GradShafranov reconstruction to the STEREO-A plasma and magnetic field data, delivered by the PLASTIC and IMPACT instruments. We then optimize the resulting field map with the aid of observations by Wind, which were made at the very outer boundary of the cloud, at a spacecraft angular separation of 6°. For the correct choice of reconstruction parameters such as axis orientation, interval and grid size, we find both a very good match between the predicted magnetic field at the position of Wind and the actual observations as well as consistent timing. We argue that the reconstruction captures almost the full extent of the cross-section of the cloud. The resulting shape transverse to the invariant axis consists of distorted ellipses and is slightly flattened in the direction of motion. The MC axis is inclined at −58°to the ecliptic with an axial field strength of 12 nT. We derive integrated axial fluxes and currents with increased precision, which we contrast with the results from linear force- free fitting. The helical geometry of the MC with almost constant twist (≈1.5 turns AU −1 ) is not consistent with the linear force-free Lundquist model. We also find that the cloud is non-force-free (|J ⊥ |/|J | > 0.3) in about a quarter of the cloud cross sectional area, particularly in the back part which is interacting with the trailing high speed stream. Based on the optimized reconstruction we put forward preliminary guidelines for the improved use of single-spacecraft Grad -Shafranov reconstruction. The results also give us the opportunity to compare the CME direction inferred from STEREO/SECCHI observations by Mierla et al. (Solar Phys. 252, 385, 2008) with the three-dimensional configuration of the MC at 1 AU. This yields an almost radial CME propagation from the Sun to the Earth.