Grazing is a major land use in Australia’s rangelands. The ‘safe’ livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the ‘best estimates’ of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as ‘known uncertainties’ and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment). We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands (including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia. Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations. Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the ‘best estimate’ projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1–5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation. Climate change projections – including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables – if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of fire, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage. In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3°C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e.g. –21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (–33% or –9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3°C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change. We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the ‘best estimate’ of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.

Buffel grass [Pennisetum ciliare (L.) Link] has been widely introduced in the Australian rangelands as a consequence of its value for productive grazing, but tends to competitively establish in non-target areas such as remnant vegetation. In this study, we examined the influence landscape-scale and local-scale variables had upon the distribution of buffel grass in remnant poplar box (Eucalyptus populnea F.Muell.) dominant woodland fragments in the Brigalow Bioregion, Queensland. Buffel grass and variables thought to influence its distribution in the region were measured at 60 sites, which were selected based on the amount of native woodland retained in the landscape and patch size. An information-theoretic modelling approach and hierarchical partitioning revealed that the most influential variable was the percent of retained vegetation within a 1-km spatial extent. From this, we identified a critical threshold of ~30% retained vegetation in the landscape, above which the model predicted buffel grass was not likely to occur in a woodland fragment. Other explanatory variables in the model were site based, and included litter cover and long-term rainfall. Given the paucity of information on the effect of buffel grass upon biodiversity values, we undertook exploratory analyses to determine whether buffel grass cover influenced the distribution of grass, forb and reptile species. We detected some trends; hierarchical partitioning revealed that buffel grass cover was the most important explanatory variable describing habitat preferences of four reptile species. However, establishing causal links – particularly between native grass and forb species and buffel grass – was problematic owing to possible confounding with grazing pressure. We conclude with a set of management recommendations aimed at reducing the spread of buffel grass into remnant woodlands.

Cultivation and cropping of soils results in a decline in soil organic carbon and soil nitrogen, and can lead to reduced crop yields. The CENTURY model was used to simulate the effects of continuous cultivation and cereal cropping on total soil organic matter (C and N), carbon pools, nitrogen mineralisation, and crop yield from 6 locations in southern Queensland. The model was calibrated for each replicate from the original datasets, allowing comparisons for each replicate rather than site averages. The CENTURY model was able to satisfactorily predict the impact of long-term cultivation and cereal cropping on total organic carbon, but was less successful in simulating the different fractions and nitrogen mineralisation. The model firstly over-predicted the initial (pre-cropping) soil carbon and nitrogen concentration of the sites. To account for the unique shrinking and swelling characteristics of the Vertosol soils, the default annual decomposition rates of the slow and passive carbon pools were doubled, and then the model accurately predicted initial conditions. The ability of the model to predict carbon pool fractions varied, demonstrating the difficulty inherent in predicting the size of these conceptual pools. The strength of the model lies in the ability to closely predict the starting soil organic matter conditions, and the ability to predict the impact of clearing, cultivation, fertiliser application, and continuous cropping on total soil carbon and nitrogen.

New or expanded agricultural industries in northern Australia require efficient and reliable supply chains and transport to domestic and international markets. A major challenge in the north is long transport distances of over 1000km between production and markets, along a sparse rural road/rail network that is largely unsealed and disrupted by seasonal flooding. To provide a comprehensive view of transport logistics costs and benefits due to infrastructure investments and regulatory changes in agriculture supply chains, the Australian Government commissioned CSIRO to develop the Transport Network Strategic Investment Tool (TraNSIT). TraNSIT optimises transport routes for up to hundreds of thousands of enterprises and millions of vehicle trips between farms and their markets, providing modelled input into operational and investment decisions. As part of a major Australian Government initiative, TraNSIT was used to directly inform the A$100 million 2016 Beef Roads Program targeting transport infrastructure investments across northern Australia. It was used to evaluate the transport savings for 60 road upgrade submissions, where the total construction cost exceeded A$3 billion. This paper highlights the innovations and experiences of using TraNSIT to inform the Beef Roads Program.

Stocking rate is often the most important and manageable factor influencing the profitability and environmental sustainability of pastoral properties. Methods for determining carrying capacity, and therefore stocking rate, include subjective approaches based on land manager experience, long-term ‘benchmark’ stocking rates and techniques using computer-aided predictions of pasture growth. This paper presents a new approach for objectively calculating short-term livestock carrying capacities of pastoral properties by integrating remotely sensed ground cover assessments as a proxy for land condition. The study region was three commercial pastoral properties in the north Australian pastoral region (above 26°S). Two properties were situated in the Victoria River District of the Northern Territory and a third in the Kimberley region of Western Australia. Annual pasture growth was estimated using GRASP, a deterministic, point-based, native pasture model developed for semiarid and tropical grasslands, which was calibrated for the different land types in the study region. Carrying capacity estimates were further refined by investigating trends in landscape cover change between years using data from satellite imagery assessment. These tools have been shown to be useful for inferring land condition and pasture growth within these regions of northern Australia but had not been integrated before this study. This study developed an approach for inferring rangeland pasture condition and applying it to refine short-term carrying capacities, thus aiding decision making. The approach developed in this study is considered to be more applicable for commercial land management than currently available methods for determining carrying capacities on pastoral properties in northern Australia.

Despite the longevity, scale and importance of northern Australia’s beef industry, recent disruptions to external markets have demonstrated a degree of vulnerability to shocks in the supply chain. Matching the industry’s long-evident resilience to climatic variability with resilience to changes in markets and supply chains requires careful planning. One component of this is how investments in infrastructure will need to be planned to facilitate adaptive responses to market changes. This paper provides an outline of a modelling framework that links strategic and operational dynamic models of logistics along the supply chain from the property to the abattoir or port. A novelty of the methodology is that it takes into account the high granularity of individual livestock transport vehicle movements and the ability to scale up to an almost complete view of logistics costs across the entire beef industry of northern Australia. The paper illustrates how the methodology could be used to examine the effects of changes in logistics infrastructure on efficiency and costs using examples from the states of Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland.

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Population growth and increased irrigation demand have caused a decline in groundwater levels that limit water supply in the Darwin rural area. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is a practical solution that can be adopted to augment stressed groundwater systems and subsequently increase the security of water supply. Aquifer storage capacity is considered to be the primary constraint to MAR where unconfined dolostone aquifers rapidly recharge during the tropical, wet season and drain again in the dry season. As a result, there is a general understanding that aquifers of this nature recharge to full capacity each wet season. However, the aquifer storage capacity and the potential for niche opportunities for MAR to alleviate declining groundwater levels has not previously been examined. This paper uses the Darwin rural area’s Proterozoic Koolpinyah Dolostone aquifer and the existing Koolpinyah Groundwater System to evaluate the prospects of MAR using both infiltration and injection techniques. Direct injection wells in an aquifer storage transfer and recovery (ASTR) scheme were favoured in this area, as injection wells occupy a smaller surface footprint than infiltration basins. This assessment suggested MAR during the early to mid-dry season could alleviate the impact of the dry season decline in groundwater levels in the Darwin rural area. The use of a larger aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) system (5,000,000 m3/year) was also assessed as a potentially viable technical solution in the northern part of the aquifer where it is understood to be confined. The ASR scheme could potentially be scaleable to augment the urban water system and provide strategic long-term storage. Consideration must also be given not only to the strategic positioning of the ASR water bank, but also to the hydrogeology of the aquifers in which the systems would be developed. Not all locations or aquifer systems can successfully support a strategic storage ASR system. Scheme-scale feasibility assessment of an ASR water bank is required. The study reported here is an early phase of a series of investigations that would typically be required to demonstrate the viability of any proposal to apply MAR to increase the reliability of conjunctive groundwater and surface water supplies in stressed water resources systems. It focusses on assessing suitable storage areas in a lateritic aquifer.