Surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus allows us to study the evolutionary dynamics of a human neoplasm over time. Here we use multicolour fluorescence in situ hybridization on brush cytology specimens, from two time points with a median interval of 37 months in 195 non-dysplastic Barrett's patients, and a third time point in a subset of 90 patients at a median interval of 36 months, to study clonal evolution at single-cell resolution. Baseline genetic diversity predicts progression and remains in a stable dynamic equilibrium over time. Clonal expansions are rare, being detected once every 36.8 patient years, and growing at an average rate of 1.58 cm2 (95% CI: 0.09–4.06) per year, often involving the p16 locus. This suggests a lack of strong clonal selection in Barrett's and that the malignant potential of ‘benign' Barrett's lesions is predetermined, with important implications for surveillance programs.

Objective The risk of developing adenocarcinoma in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus is low and difficult to predict. Accurate tools for risk stratification are needed to increase the efficiency of surveillance. We aimed to develop a prediction model for progression using clinical variables and genetic markers. Methods In a prospective cohort of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus, we evaluated six molecular markers: p16, p53, Her-2/neu, 20q, MYC, and aneusomy by DNA fluorescence in situ hybridisation on brush cytology specimens. Primary study outcomes were the development of high-grade dysplasia or oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The most predictive clinical variables and markers were determined using Cox proportional-hazards models, receiver-operating-characteristic curves and a leave-one-out analysis. Results A total of 428 patients participated (345 men; median age 60 years) with a cumulative follow-up of 2019 patient-years (median 45 months per patient). Of these patients, 22 progressed; nine developed high-grade dysplasia and 13 oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The clinical variables, age and circumferential Barrett's length, and the markers, p16 loss, MYC gain, and aneusomy, were significantly associated with progression on univariate analysis. We defined an ‘Abnormal Marker Count’ that counted abnormalities in p16, MYC and aneusomy, which significantly improved risk prediction beyond using just age and Barrett's length. In multivariate analysis, these three factors identified a high-risk group with an 8.7-fold (95% CI, 2.6 to 29.8) increased hazard ratio compared with the low-risk group, with an area under the curve of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.86). Conclusion A prediction model based on age, Barrett's length, and the markers p16, MYC, and aneusomy determines progression risk in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus.

Barrett's esophagus is the only known mucosal precursor for the highly malignant esophageal adenocarcinoma. Malignant degeneration of non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus occurs in < 0.6% per year in Dutch surveillance cohorts. Therefore, it has been proposed to increase the surveillance intervals from 3 to 5 years, potentially increasing development of advanced stage interval cancers. To prevent such cases robust biomarkers for more optimal stratification over longer follow up periods for non-dysplastic Barrett's patients are required. In this multi-center study, aberrations for chromosomes 7, 17, and structural abnormalities for c-MYC, CDKN2A, TP53, Her-2/neu and 20q assessed by DNA fluorescence in situ hybridization on brush cytology specimens, were used to determine marker scores and to perform clonal diversity measurements, as described previously. In this study, these genetic biomarkers were combined with clinical variables and analyzed to obtain the most efficient cancer prediction model after an extended period of follow-up (median time of 7 years) by applying Cox regression modeling, bootstrapping and leave-one-out analyses. A total of 334 patients with Barrett's esophagus without dysplasia from 6 community hospitals (n = 220) and one academic center (n = 114) were included. The annual progression rate to high grade dysplasia and/or esophageal adenocarcinoma was 1.3%, and to adenocarcinoma alone 0.85%. A prediction model including age, Barrett circumferential length, and a clonicity score over the genomic set including chromosomes 7, 17, 20q and c-MYC, resulted in an area under the curve of 0.88. The sensitivity and specificity of this model were 0.91 and 0.38. The positive and negative predictive values were 0.13 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.19) and 0.97 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.99). We propose the implementation of the model to identify non-dysplastic Barrett's patients, who are required to remain in surveillance programs with 3-yearly surveillance intervals from those that can benefit from less frequent or no surveillance.