Background The association between immune-related adverse events (irAEs) and survival outcomes in patients with advanced melanoma receiving therapy with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) has not been well established, particularly in Asian melanoma. Methods We retrospectively reviewed 49 melanoma patients undergoing therapy with ICIs (anti-PD-1 monotherapy), and analyzed the correlation between irAEs and clinical outcomes including progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Results: Overall, the patients who experienced grade 1–2 irAEs had longer PFS (median PFS, 4.6 vs. 2.5 months; HR, 0.52; 95% CI: 0.27–0.98; p = 0.042) and OS (median OS, 15.2 vs. 5.7 months; HR, 0.50; 95% CI: 0.24–1.02; p = 0.058) than the patients who did not experience irAEs. Regarding the type of irAE, the patients with either skin/vitiligo or endocrine irAEs showed better PFS (median PFS, 6.1 vs. 2.7 months; HR, 0.40, 95% CI: 0.21–0.74; p = 0.003) and OS (median OS, 18.7 vs. 4.5 months; HR, 0.34, 95% CI: 0.17–0.69, p = 0.003) than patients without any of these irAEs. Conclusions Melanoma patients undergoing anti-PD-1 monotherapy and experiencing mild-to-moderate irAEs (grade 1–2), particularly skin (vitiligo)/endocrine irAEs had favorable survival outcomes. Therefore, the association between irAEs and the clinical outcomes in melanoma patients undergoing anti-PD-1 ICIs may be severity and type dependent.

Background Afatinib is one of the standard treatments for patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutated non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, data on the use of afatinib in patients with poor performance status (PS ≥ 2) are limited. This study aimed to retrospectively review the clinical outcomes and safety of afatinib treatment in EGFR-mutation-positive (EGFRm+) NSCLC patients with PS ≥ 2. Methods The data for 62 patients who were treated at Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital from January 2010 to August 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients’ clinicopathological features were obtained, and univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify possible prognostic factors. Data on adverse events were collected to evaluate general tolerance for afatinib therapy. Results Until February 2020, the objective response rate, disease control rate, median progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were 58.1% (36/62), 69.4% (43/62), 8.8 months, and 12.9 months, respectively. The absence of liver metastasis (PFS: p = 0.044; OS: p = 0.061) and good disease control (p < 0.001 for PFS and OS) were independent favorable prognostic factors for PFS and OS. Bone metastasis (p = 0.036) and dose modification (reduction/interruption, p = 0.021) were predictors of disease control. Conclusion Afatinib demonstrated acceptable efficacy and safety in the current cohort. This study provided evidence to support the use of afatinib as a first-line treatment in EGFRm+ NSCLC patients with poor PS.

The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate the tolerability and survival outcomes of epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) treatment in patients with a performance status ≥ 2. The data for 517 patients treated with EGFR-TKIs between January 2011 and January 2018 at a regional hospital in northern Taiwan were analyzed. Clinical and pathological features were collected, and univariate as well as multivariable analyses were undertaken to identify potential prognostic factors. The overall objective response rate, median progression-free survival (PFS), and median overall survival (OS) were 56.3%, 11.4 months, and 15.3 months, respectively. The mutation status (exon 19 deletion), locally advanced disease, dose adjustment, and the lack of liver and pleural metastasis were independent and favorable prognostic factors for PFS. Age < 60 years, mutation status (exon 19 deletion), dose adjustment, and lack of lung, liver, and no pleural metastasis were independent and favorable prognostic factors for OS. GFR-TKIs demonstrated acceptable efficacy and safety in the current cohort. Dose adjustment was identified as an independent prognostic factor for both PFS and OS, regardless of which EGFR-TKIs were used. The current research provided novel evidence of the clinical prescription of frontline EGFR-TKIs for EGFR-mutated lung adenocarcinoma patients with a PS score ≥2.

Gemcitabine plus S-1 (GS) is commonly used to treat advanced pancreatic cancer (APC) in Asia. Few clinical experiments have demonstrated the clinical efficacy of GS in routine clinical practice. We aimed to identify the prognostic factors and develop a prognostic model for survival prediction in patients with APC, treated with GS. Records of 111 patients with newly diagnosed APC who received first-line palliative GS chemotherapy during 2010–2016 in Taiwan were analyzed retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed for the identification of prognostic factors. A prognostic model using prognosticators from the multivariate analysis was developed for survival prediction. The median overall survival (OS) for the cohort was 9.3 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.0–10.6). The prognostic model was constructed based on four independent prognosticators: performance status, tumor stage, pre-treatment albumin level, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Patients were categorized by tertiles into good, intermediate, and poor prognostic groups. The median OS values for each of these groups were 21.1 (95% CI, 8.2–33.9), 9.2 (95% CI, 8.3–10.1), and 5.8 months (95% CI, 4.4–7.1; log-rank p < 0.001), respectively. The bootstrapped corrected C-index of this model was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.71–0.89). The developed model was robust and could accurately predict survival in this population, and can assist clinicians and patients in survival discrimination and the determination of appropriate medical care goals. Additional research is needed to externally validate the model’s performance.

Epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) are the standard treatment for EGFR mutation-positive (EGFRm+) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study aimed to create a novel nomogram to help physicians suggest the optimal treatment for patients with EGFRm+ NSCLC. Records of 2190 patients with EGFRm+ NSCLC cancer who were treated with EGFR-TKIs (including gefitinib, erlotinib, and afatinib) at the branches of a hospital group between 2011 and 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. Their clinicopathological characteristics, clinical tumor response, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) data were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify potential prognostic factors to create a nomogram for risk stratification. Univariate analysis identified 14 prognostic factors, and multivariate analysis confirmed the pretreatment independent factors, including Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, morphology, mutation, stage, EGFR-TKIs (gefitinib, erlotinib, or afatinib), and metastasis to liver, brain, bone, pleura, adrenal gland, and distant lymph nodes. Based on these factors, a novel nomogram was created and used to stratify the patients into five different risk groups for PFS and OS using recursive partitioning analysis. This risk stratification can provide additional information to clinicians and patients when determining the optimal therapeutic options for EGFRm+ NSCLC.

Background/Aim: Afatinib is a standard treatment for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) harboring epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations. Osimertinib can overcome the treatment resistance-associated EGFR T790M mutation, and the sequence of afatinib followed by osimertinib is an effective therapeutic strategy for NSCLC patients. This study comprehensively evaluated the outcomes of sequential therapy following frontline afatinib and identified predictive factors for T790M mutation acquisition. Patients and Methods: Data from patients with advanced NSCLC treated with frontline afatinib at a Taiwanese hospital group from June 2014 to March 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. The EGFR T790M mutation was detected by tissue sequencing or liquid biopsy. The patients' clinicopathological features were collected, and univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify potential predictive and prognostic factors. Results: A total of 635 patients treated with afatinib were enrolled in this study. Until August 2021, 553 patients experienced progression, and 225 patients underwent T790M mutation testing. The T790M positive rate was 54.2%. Both exon 19 deletion and progressionfree survival were associated with T790M positivity. Osimertinib was found to be effective in T790M-positive but not T790Mnegative NSCLC. The median overall survival (OS) was 61.8 months for patients with T790M mutation undergoing later-line osimertinib compared with 30.1 months for patients without T790M mutation undergoing chemotherapy only. Osimertinib independently prolonged OS after afatinib progression. Conclusion: This study confirmed the efficacy of sequential afatinib and osimertinib treatment. T790M mutation detection and osimertinib availability are important for prolonging survival in patients with NSCLC harboring EGFR mutations.

Abstract. This paper considers questions related to the adoption of stochastic methods in hydrogeology. It looks at factors affecting the adoption of stochastic methods including environmental regulations, financial incentives, higher education, and the collective feedback loop involving these factors. We begin by evaluating two previous paper series appearing in the stochastic hydrogeology literature, one in 2004 and one in 2016, and identifying the current thinking on the topic, including the perceived data needs of stochastic methods, the attitude in regulations and the court system regarding stochastic methods, education of the workforce and the availability of software tools needed for implementing stochastic methods in practice. Comparing the state of adoption in hydrogeology to petroleum reservoir engineering allowed us to identify quantitative metrics on which to base our analysis. For impediments to the adoption of stochastic hydrology, we identified external factors as well as self-inflicted wounds. What emerges is a picture much broader than current views. Financial incentives and regulations play a major role in stalling adoption. Stochastic Hydrology's blind spot is in confusing between risk and uncertainty and ignoring uncertainty. We show that stochastic hydrogeology comfortably focused on risk while ignoring uncertainty, to its own detriment and to the detriment of its potential clients. The imbalance between the treatment on risk on one hand and uncertainty on the other is shown to be common to multiple disciplines in hydrology that interface with risk and uncertainty.

We aimed to investigate the prognostic value of the relative maximum standardized uptake value (SUV) of metastatic lymph node (LN) compared with that of primary tumor (SUVLN/SUVTumor) based on a pretreatment [18F]-FDG PET/CT scan in patients with clinically node-positive esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (cN+ ESCC) treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT). We retrospectively evaluated cN+ ESCC patients who underwent a PET/CT scan before dCRT. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristics analysis was performed to identify the optimal cutoff value for SUVLN/SUVTumor. Prognostic influences of SUVLN/SUVTumor on distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated using the Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank test for univariate analysis and Cox’s proportional hazards regression model for multivariate analysis. We identified 112 patients with newly diagnosed cN+ ESCC. After a median follow-up of 32.0 months, 50 (44.6%) patients had distant failure and 84 (75.0%) patients died. Patients with high SUVLN/SUVTumor (≥ 0.39) experienced worse outcomes than low SUVLN/SUVTumor (< 0.39) (two-year DMFS: 26% vs. 70%, p < 0.001; two-year OS: 21% vs. 48%, p = 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that SUVLN/SUVTumor was an independent prognostic factor for both DMFS (adjusted HR 2.24, 95% CI 1.34–3.75, p = 0.002) and OS (adjusted HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.03–2.53, p = 0.037). Pretreatment of SUVLN/SUVTumor is a simple and useful marker for prognosticating DMFS and OS in cN+ ESCC patients treated with dCRT, which may help in tailoring treatment and designing future clinical trials.