No abstract

Small-medium enterprises (SMEs) encounter financial constraints when they try to obtain credit from banks. These constraints are particularly severe for innovative SMEs. Thus, developing models for innovative SMEs that provide reliable estimates of their probabilities of default (PD) is important because the PDs can also serve as ratings. We examine the role of innovative assets such as patents in credit risk modelling due to their signaling value. Specifically, we add to a logit model two innovation-related variables in order to account for both the dimension and the value of the patent portfolio. Based on a unique data set of innovative SMEs with default years of 2005–2008, we show that, although the value of the patent portfolio always reduces the PD, its dimension reduces the firm’s riskiness only if coupled with an appropriate equity level

No abstract

This paper compares two types of volatility models for returns, ARCH-type and stochastic volatility (SV) models, both from a theoretical and an empirical point of view. In particular a GARCH(1,1) model, an EGARCH(1,1) model and a log-normal AR(1) stochastic volatility model are considered. The three models are estimated on UK stock data: a series of the British equity index FTSE100 is used to estimate the relevant parameters. Diagnostic tests are implemented to evaluate how well the models fit the data. The models are used to obtain daily volatility forecasts and these volatilities are used to estimate the “VaR” on a simple one-unit position on FTSE100. The VaR accuracy is tested by means of a backtest. While the results do not lead to a straightforward preference between GARCH(1,1) and SV, the EGARCH shows the best performance.Volatility models, stochastic volatility, GARCH, value at risk,

Procyclicality, Rating systems, Basel II, General equilibrium, D58, E44, G21, G38,

This paper assesses the impact on capital requirements of the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) based on a stylised financial portfolio sensible to the risk factors affected by the review. Our results show the order of magnitude of the increase across the two regulations and the two possible approaches: the standard approach and the internal model approach. We further disentangle the components of the expected increase implied by the FRTB. The most interesting result emerges for the internal model approach, whereby the increase in the capital charge is attributable not only to the change in the risk measure and the inclusion of longer liquidity horizons, but most importantly to the dampening of the diversification benefit.

Systemic risk measures and macroprudential stress tests An assessment over the 2014 EBA exercise by Chiara Pederzoli and Costanza Torricelli

The Basel II capital accord and the recent crises have fostered the debate over the financial stability of the aggregate banking sector. Because loan losses are an important factor for banking stability, this paper aims to gauge the impact of real and financial fragility on default losses of Italian banks. To this end the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans is regressed on the business cycle and indebtedness. In addition, to capture the joint effect of real and financial fragility, the analysis considers an interaction term, which to our knowledge has never been applied before to Italian default data. Based on the interaction model, results show that the actual impact of financial fragility on default losses depends not only on the business cycle phase but also on the firm's size, whereby in adverse economic conditions, small firms are more significantly affected by financial fragility.(J.E.L.: E32, E44, G21).