Background Few studies have estimated the probability of being cured for cancer patients. This study aims to estimate population-based indicators of cancer cure in Europe by type, sex, age and period. Methods 7.2 million cancer patients (42 population-based cancer registries in 17 European countries) diagnosed at ages 15–74 years in 1990–2007 with follow-up to 2008 were selected from the EUROCARE-5 dataset. Mixture-cure models were used to estimate: (i) life expectancy of fatal cases (LEF); (ii) cure fraction (CF) as proportion of patients with same death rates as the general population; (iii) time to cure (TTC) as time to reach 5-year conditional relative survival (CRS) >95%. Results LEF ranged from 10 years for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia patients to <6 months for those with liver, pancreas, brain, gallbladder and lung cancers. It was 7.7 years for patients with prostate cancer at age 65–74 years and >5 years for women with breast cancer. The CF was 94% for testis, 87% for thyroid cancer in women and 70% in men, 86% for skin melanoma in women and 76% in men, 66% for breast, 63% for prostate and <10% for liver, lung and pancreatic cancers. TTC was <5 years for testis and thyroid cancer patients diagnosed below age 55 years, and <10 years for stomach, colorectal, corpus uteri and melanoma patients of all ages. For breast and prostate cancers, a small excess (CRS < 95%) remained for at least 15 years. Conclusions Estimates from this analysis should help to reduce unneeded medicalization and costs. They represent an opportunity to improve patients’ quality of life.

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BackgroundEstimates of cancer prevalence are widely based on limited duration, often including patients living after a cancer diagnosis made in the previous 5 years and less frequently on complete prevalence (i.e., including all patients regardless of the time elapsed since diagnosis). This study aims to provide estimates of complete cancer prevalence in Italy by sex, age, and time since diagnosis for all cancers combined, and for selected cancer types. Projections were made up to 2020, overall and by time since diagnosis.MethodsData were from 27 Italian population-based cancer registries, covering 32% of the Italian population, able to provide at least 7 years of registration as of December 2009 and follow-up of vital status as of December 2013. The data were used to compute the limited-duration prevalence, in order to estimate the complete prevalence by means of the COMPREV software.ResultsIn 2010, 2,637,975 persons were estimated to live in Italy after a cancer diagnosis, 1.2 million men and 1.4 million women, or 4.6% of the Italian population. A quarter of male prevalent cases had prostate cancer (n = 305,044), while 42% of prevalent women had breast cancer (n = 604,841). More than 1.5 million people (2.7% of Italians) were alive since 5 or more years after diagnosis and 20% since ≥15 years. It is projected that, in 2020 in Italy, there will be 3.6 million prevalent cancer cases (+ 37% vs 2010). The largest 10-year increases are foreseen for prostate (+ 85%) and for thyroid cancers (+ 79%), and for long-term survivors diagnosed since 20 or more years (+ 45%). Among the population aged ≥75 years, 22% will have had a previous cancer diagnosis.ConclusionsThe number of persons living after a cancer diagnosis is estimated to rise of approximately 3% per year in Italy. The availability of detailed estimates and projections of the complete prevalence are intended to help the implementation of guidelines aimed to enhance the long-term follow-up of cancer survivors and to contribute their rehabilitation needs.

A higher frequency of early onset female breast cancers (BC) has been observed in low/middle income countries than in high income countries. We quantified the role of population ageing to this pattern using data from all population-based cancer registries (CRs) worldwide. Patients’ median age at BC onset and that of the general population were extracted for CRs listed in volumes VI (1983–1987 years) through XI (2008–2012 years) of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. Their association was assessed at cross-sectional level by linear regression model and longitudinally considering 25-year ageing of the population in long-standing CRs listed at the beginning and at the end of the study. During 2008–2012, each one-year increase of population ageing was associated with a nearly ½ year increase of age at BC diagnosis. Population demographics explained forty-two percent of the age variance for BC. In 1983–1987, long-standing CRs with a median age at BC below age 61.8 years showed an increase of age at BC after 25-years. Worldwide, age at BC diagnosis essentially reflected the median age of the population. Changes in BC detection methodology likely lessened this association. Nevertheless, the elevated absolute number of BCs in young populations deserves strategies of BC prevention.