This paper explores the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) modulation of tropical cyclone (TC; hereafter, MJO-TC) genesis over the South China Sea (SCS) and Western North Pacific (WNP) under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. Analyses used Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track data, the Real-Time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim (ERA-Interim) reanalysis data. The results showed that the MJO has significant modulation on both the SCS and WNP TC genesis in neutral years, with more (fewer) TCs forming during the active (inactive) MJO phases. However, during the El Niño and La Niña years, the MJO-TC genesis modulation over the two regions differs from each other. Over the SCS, the MJO modulation of TC genesis is stronger in the La Niña years, while it becomes weaker in the El Niño years. Over the WNP, the MJO has a stronger influence on TC genesis in the El Niño years compared to that in the La Niña years. Related Genesis Potential Index (GPI) analysis suggests that midlevel moisture is the primary factor and vorticity is the secondary factor, for the MJO-TC genesis modulation over the SCS in the La Niña years. Over the WNP, midlevel moisture is the dominant factor for the MJO-TC genesis modulation during the El Niño years. These results can be explained by increased water vapor transport from the Bay of Bengal, associated with enhanced westerly wind anomalies, during the active phases relative to the inactive MJO phases; these conditions prevail over the SCS during the La Niña years, and over the WNP during the El Niño years.Atmosphere 2020, 11, 183 2 of 20 timescale ranges [2,[5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. On the intraseasonal time scale, many studies suggested that Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a strong influence in modulating TC genesis over the SCS and the WNP [12][13][14][15][16].Atmosphere 2020, 11, 183 2 of 21 TCs formed over the WNP [4]. Atmospheric variability can affect TC genesis over the SCS and the WNP at various timescale ranges [2,5-11]. On the intraseasonal time scale, many studies suggested that Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a strong influence in modulating TC genesis over the SCS and the WNP [12-16].Figure 1. The locations of the Bay of Bengal, Vietnam, China, the South China Sea (SCS), Luzon Island, Philippines and the Western North Pacific (WNP). Blue box, the SCS area; green box, the WNP area.The MJO, which is a strong tropical signal of intraseasonal variability, has a 30-to 90-day oscillation period [17][18][19]. The MJO-related convection usually forms in the tropical Indian Ocean, moves eastward across the maritime continent to the Pacific Ocean, and then disappears in the central Pacific Ocean along the equator with a speed of about 5 m·s −1 , however, the MJO-related divergent circulation still propagates over South America and Africa with a faster propagation speed [20][21][22][23][24]. In addition, the MJO triggers tropical-extratropical teleconnections around the globe, particularly wh...
<p>This paper explores the modulation by Madden&#8211;Julian Oscillation (MJO) on tropical-cyclone (TC; hereafter, MJO TC) genesis over the Western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) under different El Ni&#241;o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. Analyses used Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Best Track data, the Real-Time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim (ERA-Interim) reanalysis data. Results showed that MJO has significant modulation on both SCS and WNP TC genesis in neutral years, with more (fewer) TCs forming during active (inactive) MJO phases. However, during El Ni&#241;o and La Ni&#241;a years, modulation over the two regions differs. Over the SCS, the modulation of TC genesis is strong in La Ni&#241;a years, while it becomes weak in El Ni&#241;o years. Over the WNP, MJO has stronger influence on TC genesis in El Ni&#241;o years compared to that in La Ni&#241;a years. Related Genesis Potential Index (GPI) analysis suggests that midlevel moisture is the primary factor for MJO modulation on SCS TC genesis in La Ni&#241;a years, and vorticity is the secondary factor. Over the WNP, midlevel moisture is the dominant factor for MJO TC genesis modulation during El Ni&#241;o years. The main reason is increased water-vapor transport from the Bay of Bengal associated with the active MJO phase related westerly wind anomalies; these features are a significant presence over the SCS during La Ni&#241;a years, and over the WNP during El Ni&#241;o years.</p>
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