In the face of ongoing global climate and land use change, organisms have multiple possibilities to cope with the modification of their environment. The two main possibilities are to either adapt locally or disperse to a more suitable habitat. The evolution of both local adaptation and dispersal interacts and can be influenced by the spatial and temporal variation (of e.g. temperature or precipitation). In an individual based model (IBM), we explore evolution of phenotypes in landscapes with varying degree of spatial relative to global temporal variation in order to examine its influence on the evolution of dispersal, niche optimum and niche width. The relationship between temporal and spatial variation did neither influence the evolution of local adaptation in the niche optimum nor of niche widths. Dispersal probability is highly influenced by the spatio‐temporal relationship: with increasing spatial variation, dispersal probability decreases. Additionally, the shape of the distribution of the trait values over patch attributes switches from hump‐ to U‐shaped. At low spatial variance more individuals emigrate from average habitats, at high spatial variance more from extreme habitats. The comparatively high dispersal probability in extreme patches of landscapes with a high spatial variation can be explained by evolutionary succession of two kinds of adaptive response. Early in the simulations, extreme patches in landscapes with a high spatial variability act as sink habitats, where population persistence depends on highly dispersive individuals with a wide niche. With ongoing evolution, local adaptation of the remaining individuals takes over, but simultaneously a possible bet‐hedging strategy promotes higher dispersal probabilities in those habitats. Here, in generations that experience extreme shifts from the temporal mean of the patch attribute, the expected fitness becomes higher for dispersing individuals than for philopatric individuals. This means that under certain circumstances, both local adaptation and high dispersal probability can be selected for for coping with the projected environmental changes in the future.
Background Dispersal is an important event for most organisms at least once in their life cycle. The evolution of dispersal can be influenced by local adaptation, landscape structure, and perceived temporal and spatial variation. The interaction between local adaptation, landscape heterogeneity, temporal variability and rules of dispersal may be more complex than previously assumed. Therefore, we sought to understand the influence of emigration rules and landscape structure on emerging dispersal rates and traits. Here, we implemented an individual-based model (IBM) of trait evolution in scenarios characterized by different landscape structures and different degrees of spatial heterogeneity and global temporal variation. Individuals could evolve two traits coding for their environmental niche (position of niche optimum and niche width), and two traits determining nearest-neighbor dispersal: an individual emigrates with a probability defined by the first trait (random emigration), but emigrates with certainty if the fertility expected in the patch of residence falls below a threshold specified by the second trait (habitat-dependent emigration). Results We note an interaction effect between dispersal strategy and spatial variance—lower emigration under habitat-dependent than under random emigration if spatial heterogeneity is low, but eventually a reversal of this ranking if heterogeneity becomes large. Landscapes with sharp transition of habitat attributes result in a high degree of spatial sorting, while fractal landscapes do not. Emigration rates are overall lowest, when spatial variation is highest. Conclusions We conclude that emergent emigration rates are influenced more by landscape structure and spatio-temporal heterogeneity than by the emigration strategy. With the ongoing land use change more research into this topic could help highlight the difficulties species might face under the change from landscapes characterized by gradual transition zones to landscapes dominated by abrupt ecotones, the latter typical for agricultural and urban settings.
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