A generic systems dynamics (SD) model template for resilience is adapted to analyse flooding impacts on household assets and local government assets of Pasig City, Metro Manila. SD simulations are used to quantify the loss of system performance due to adverse impacts, and the recovery of the system due to response measures. The simulation results reflect the decreasing levels of resilience among low‐income households, and the reliance of local government on budgeting cycles to replenish assets. The initial model needs to be expanded to include other determinants of resilience, but this exploratory study reflects the potential usefulness of SD simulations as a decision support tool for city policy makers. By quantifying changes in resilience measures over time, simulations can complement qualitative analyses and test policy and programme scenarios.
Purpose This paper aims to present the concepts of two different ways of generating a dynamic structure of the urban system to further allow in understanding specific urban behavior facing against flood and further evaluate the potential effect of specific resilience strategies aiming to decrease the exposure and vulnerability of the system. Design/methodology/approach Two system dynamics model structures are presented in form of Casual Loop Diagrams. Findings The main differences among the tow approaches are the time horizon and the approach that regulates the assessment of the resilience through a dynamic composite indicator: the first model refers to baseline at initial simulation time; the second model is focused on the ratio service supply to demand. Research limitations/implications Within the approach, the purpose is to properly and efficiently evaluate the effect of different Flood Risk Management strategies, i.e. prevention, defence, mitigation, preparation and recovery for consistent and resilient flood governance plans with different type of resilience scenarios. Originality/value The need for such tool is underlined by a lack on the assessment of urban resilience to flood as whole, considering the physical and social dimensions and the complex interaction among their main components. There are several assessment tools based on an indicator approach that have been proposed to meet this need. Nevertheless, indicator-based approach has the limitation to exclude the complexity of the system and its systemic interaction in terms of feedbacks’ effects among the identified components or variables selected for the system description. This peculiarity can be provided by System Dynamics modeling.
Purpose Climate vulnerability assessments are often operationalized by the analysis of indicators defined by the spatial boundaries of the community under study. These, however, sometimes fail to capture interdependency among communities for basic resources. This paper aims to propose a framework for characterizing vulnerability caused by interdependency by adapting a supply chain lens. Design/methodology/approach The paper proposes a definition for “indirect vulnerability” that recognizes the transboundary and teleconnected nature of vulnerability arising from resource networks among cities and communities. A conceptual framework using a supply chain approach is presented for climate hazards in particular. This approach is then demonstrated through a rapid appraisal of the rice, energy and water supply chains and the waste management chains of Metro Manila. Findings The application of the supply chain lens to assessing the indirect vulnerability of Metro Manila brings to fore issues extending beyond the decision-making boundaries of local government units. Addressing these will require vertical government coordination and horizontal inter-sectoral collaboration. Thus, this supply chain-based indirect vulnerability assessment can be complementary to traditional vulnerability assessments in providing a larger systems perspective. Originality/value Innovative tools are needed to make community vulnerability assessments both holistic and tractable. Existing methods in the private sector can be adapted rather than reinventing the wheel. This supply chain framework can be a useful decision support and planning tool across governance levels to comprehensively address vulnerability.
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