We compare global water vapor observations from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and simulations with the Lagrangian chemical transport model CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere) to investigate the pathways of water vapor into the lower stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer. We find good agreement between the simulation and observations, with an effect of the satellite averaging kernel especially at high latitudes. The Asian and American monsoons emerge as regions of particularly high water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere during boreal summer. In NH midlatitudes and high latitudes, a clear anticorrelation between water vapor and ozone daily tendencies reveals a large region influenced by frequent horizontal transport from low latitudes, extending up to about 450K during summer and fall. Analysis of the zonal mean tracer continuity equation shows that close to the subtropics, this horizontal transport is mainly caused by the residual circulation. In contrast, at higher latitudes, poleward of about 50°N, eddy mixing dominates the horizontal water vapor transport. Model simulations with transport barriers confirm that almost the entire annual cycle of water vapor in NH midlatitudes above about 360K, with maximum mixing ratios during summer and fall, is caused by horizontal transport from low latitudes. In the model, highest water vapor mixing ratios in this region are clearly linked to horizontal transport from the subtropics.
Abstract. Variations in the mixing ratio of trace gases of tropospheric origin entering the stratosphere in the tropics are of interest for assessing both troposphere to stratosphere transport fluxes in the tropics and the impact of these transport fluxes on the composition of the tropical lower stratosphere. Anomaly patterns of carbon monoxide (CO) and long-lived tracers in the lower tropical stratosphere allow conclusions about the rate and the variability of tropical upwelling to be drawn. Here, we present a simplified chemistry scheme for the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the simulation, at comparatively low numerical cost, of CO, ozone, and long-lived trace substances (CH4, N2O, CCl3F (CFC-11), CCl2F2 (CFC-12), and CO2) in the lower tropical stratosphere. For the long-lived trace substances, the boundary conditions at the surface are prescribed based on ground-based measurements in the lowest model level. The boundary condition for CO in the lower troposphere (below about 4 km) is deduced from MOPITT measurements. Due to the lack of a specific representation of mixing and convective uplift in the troposphere in this model version, enhanced CO values, in particular those resulting from convective outflow are underestimated. However, in the tropical tropopause layer and the lower tropical stratosphere, there is relatively good agreement of simulated CO with in situ measurements (with the exception of the TROCCINOX campaign, where CO in the simulation is biased low ≈10–15 ppbv). Further, the model results (and therefore also the ERA-Interim winds, on which the transport in the model is based) are of sufficient quality to describe large scale anomaly patterns of CO in the lower stratosphere. In particular, the zonally averaged tropical CO anomaly patterns (the so called "tape recorder" patterns) simulated by this model version of CLaMS are in good agreement with observations, although the simulations show a too rapid upwelling compared to observations as a consequence of the overestimated vertical velocities in the ERA-Interim reanalysis data set. Moreover, the simulated tropical anomaly patterns of N2O are in good agreement with observations. In the simulations, anomaly patterns of CH4 and CFC-11 were found to be very similar to those of N2O; for all long-lived tracers, positive anomalies are simulated because of the enhanced tropical upwelling in the easterly shear phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation.
Abstract. Lagrangian transport schemes have proven to be useful tools for modelling stratospheric trace gas transport since they are less diffusive than classical Eulerian schemes and therefore especially well suited for maintaining steep tracer gradients. Here, we present the implementation of the full-Lagrangian transport core of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) into the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model (EMAC). We performed a 10-year time-slice simulation to evaluate the coupled model system EMAC/CLaMS. Simulated zonal mean age of air distributions are compared to age of air derived from airborne measurements, showing a good overall representation of the stratospheric circulation. Results from the new Lagrangian transport scheme are compared to tracer distributions calculated with the standard flux-form semiLagrangian (FFSL) transport scheme in EMAC. The differences in the resulting tracer distributions are most pronounced in the regions of strong transport barriers. The polar vortices are presented as an example for isolated air masses which are surrounded by a strong transport barrier and simulated trace gas distributions are compared to satellite measurements. The analysis of CFC-11, N 2 O, CH 4 , and age of air in the polar vortex regions shows that the CLaMS Lagrangian transport scheme produces a stronger, more realistic transport barrier at the edge of the polar vortex than the FFSL transport scheme of EMAC. Differences in simulated age of air range up to 1 year in the Arctic polar vortex in late winter/early spring. The new coupled model system EMAC/CLaMS thus constitutes a suitable tool for future model studies of stratospheric tracer transport.
Abstract. Variations in the mixing ratio of trace gases of tropospheric origin entering the stratosphere in the tropics are of interest for assessing both troposphere to stratosphere transport fluxes in the tropics and the impact of these transport fluxes on the composition of the tropical lower stratosphere. Anomaly patterns of carbon monoxide (CO) and long-lived tracers in the lower tropical stratosphere allow conclusions about the rate and the variability of tropical upwelling to be drawn. Here, we present a simplified chemistry scheme for the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the simulation, at comparatively low numerical cost, of CO, ozone, and long-lived trace substances (CH4, N2O, CCl3F (CFC-11), CCl2F2 (CFC-12), and CO2) in the lower tropical stratosphere. For the long-lived trace substances, the boundary conditions at the surface are prescribed based on ground-based measurements in the lowest model level. The boundary condition for CO in the free troposphere is deduced from MOPITT measurements (at ≈ 700–200 hPa). Due to the lack of a specific representation of mixing and convective uplift in the troposphere in this model version, enhanced CO values, in particular those resulting from convective outflow are underestimated. However, in the tropical tropopause layer and the lower tropical stratosphere, there is relatively good agreement of simulated CO with in-situ measurements (with the exception of the TROCCINOX campaign, where CO in the simulation is biased low ≈ 10–20 ppbv). Further, the model results are of sufficient quality to describe large scale anomaly patterns of CO in the lower stratosphere. In particular, the zonally averaged tropical CO anomaly patterns (the so called "tape recorder" patterns) simulated by this model version of CLaMS are in good agreement with observations. The simulations show a too rapid upwelling compared to observations as a consequence of the overestimated vertical velocities in the ERA-interim reanalysis data set. Moreover, the simulated tropical anomaly patterns of N2O are in good agreement with observations. In the simulations, anomaly patterns for CH4 and CFC-11 were found to be consistent with those of N2O; for all long-lived tracers, positive anomalies are simulated because of the enhanced tropical upwelling in the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation.
The high temporal variability of wind power generation represents a major challenge for the realization of a sustainable energy supply. Large backup and storage facilities are necessary to secure the supply in periods of low renewable generation, especially in countries with a high share of renewables. We show that strong climate change is likely to impede the system integration of intermittent wind energy. To this end, we analyze the temporal characteristics of wind power generation based on high-resolution climate projections for Europe and uncover a robust increase of backup energy and storage needs in most of Central, Northern and North-Western Europe. This effect can be traced back to an increase of the likelihood for long periods of low wind generation and an increase in the seasonal wind variability.
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