Assessing natural selection on a phenotypic trait in wild populations is of primary importance for evolutionary ecologists. To cope with the imperfect detection of individuals inherent to monitoring in the wild, we develop a nonparametric method for evaluating the form of natural selection on a quantitative trait using mark-recapture data. Our approach uses penalized splines to achieve flexibility in exploring the form of natural selection by avoiding the need to specify an a priori parametric function. If needed, it can help in suggesting a new parametric model. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to estimate model parameters. We illustrate our approach using data for a wild population of sociable weavers (Philetairus socius) to investigate survival in relation to body mass. In agreement with previous parametric analyses, we found that lighter individuals showed a reduction in survival. However, the survival function was not symmetric, indicating that body mass might not be under stabilizing selection as suggested previously.
It is now pretty generally admitted that. some knowledge of the Assyrian language is necessary to every Semitic specialist, and of prime importance in the work of Old Testament interpretation. Indeed, such strides have been made within thirty years in the decipherment of the cuneiform inscriptions, and such light has been thrown by this means upon the fortunes and literatures of the ancient Semitic peoples, that students of these can no longer, with any sort of justice, allude disparagingly to the wide divergence of opinion among Assyriologists, and make the consequent uncertainty and difficulty the excuse for failure to undertake the study of Assyrian. As substantial agreement has been reached as to the principles by which ASsyrian is to be deciphered and interpreted as we can hope to reach in the pursuit of any science whatever; and, as our knowledge of the Assyrian vocabulary shall improve, we may hope to see further uncertainties in regard to the values of the cuneiform signs gradually vanish, until there shall remain nothing but an insignificant minimum to remind us that there could once have been great difficulty arising from the various values of the signs.The difficulties which have of late encompassed a beginner's path are well stated by Dr. Lyon in the preface to his Assyrian Manual, as follows: "Two great obstacles have stood in the way of those who desire to become acquainted with the language,-the lack of suitable books for beginners, and the large demand made on the memory for the acquisition of the cuneiform signs." It is safe to say that the labor of memory needed to acquire the signs would never prove irksome enough to drive scholars from the field. There remained, then, the lack of proper books for beginners.And Dr. Lyon has taken a great step in removing this reproach from the door of the Assyriologists. Observing to what degree the acquisition of the signs has been complicated for beginners by their meager knowledge of the linguistic peculiarities to be expected, he has set before himself the problem of teaching the language through transliterated texts prior to any very close study of the originals or large practice with the signs. And therefore, in his selections for reading, he has given forty-seven pages to these texts against twelve in the cuneiform character. At the same time, for a gradual and pleasant introduction to the original, he has given five tables of signs to be used with the cuneiform selections and in preparing brief exercises. These tables offer, (1) a list of 287 Phonograms, giving all except very rare syllabic values, (2) a selected list of the ninety-two syllabic signs used most frequently, (3) twenty-four Determinatives, (4) 372 Ideograms, or ideographic combinations, including all used in the texts employed in the work, (5) the signs used for numerals when written ideographically. The Outline of Gram-* AN ASSYRIAN MANUAL, for the use of Beginners in the study of the Assyrian language.
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