Climate models predict that global average sea level may rise considerably this century, potentially affecting species that rely on coastal habitat. The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) have high conservation value due to their concentration of endemic, endangered and threatened species, and large numbers of nesting seabirds. Most of these islands are low-lying and therefore potentially vulnerable to increases in global average sea level. We explored the potential for habitat loss in the NWHI by creating topographic models of several islands and evaluating the potential effects of sea level rise by 2100 under a range of basic passive flooding scenarios. Projected terrestrial habitat loss varied greatly among the islands examined: 3 to 65% under a median scenario (48 cm rise), and 5 to 75% under the maximum scenario (88 cm rise). Spring tides would probably periodically inundate all land below 89 cm (median scenario) and 129 cm (maximum scenario) in elevation. Sea level is expected to continue increasing after 2100, which would have greater impact on atolls such as French Frigate Shoals and Pearl and Hermes Reef, where virtually all land is less than 2 m above sea level. Higher elevation islands such as Lisianski, Laysan, Necker, and Nihoa may provide longerterm refuges for species. The effects of habitat loss on NWHI biota are difficult to predict, but may be greatest for endangered Hawaiian monk seals, threatened Hawaiian green sea turtles, and the endangered Laysan finch at Pearl and Hermes Reef. This study marks the first effort to detail the topography and evaluate sea level rise effects on NWHI species. KEY WORDS: Sea level rise • Habitat loss • Northwestern Hawaiian Islands • Hawaiian monk seal • Green sea turtle • Laysan finch Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

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A recently reestablished and increasing population of Hawaiian monk seals in the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) is encouraging for this endangered species. However, seals in the MHI may be exposed to a broad range of human, pet, livestock, and feral animal pathogens. Our objective was to determine the movement and foraging habitats of Hawaiian monk seals in the MHI relative to the potential exposure of seals to infectious diseases in near-shore marine habitats. We captured 18 monk seals in the MHI between January 27, 2004 and November 29, 2005, tested them for various infectious diseases, and then monitored the foraging movements of 11 of them using satellite-linked radio transmitters for the next 32-167 days. All seals tested negative for canine adenovirus, calicivirus, four morbilliviruses, phocine herpes virus, Leptospira sp., and feline and canine heartworm antigen/antibody. Six of the seals tested positive on complement fixation for Chlamydophila abortus (formerly Chlamydia psittaci). Four seals demonstrated positive titers to Sarcocystis neurona, two to Neospora caninum, and two to Toxoplasma gondii. Fecal cultures showed approximately half (n = 6) positive for E. coli 0157, no Salmonella sp., and only one with Campylobacter sp. Satellite monitored seals spent considerable time foraging, traveling, and resting in neritic waters close to human population centers, agricultural activity, and livestock ranges, and sources of land-based water runoff and sewage dispersal.Consequently, Hawaiian monk seals in the MHI may be at risk of exposure to several infectious disease agents associated with terrestrial animals that can contaminate marine habitats from runoff along drainages and that are known to cause disease in marine mammals. Further, some seals overlapped substantially in their use of coastal habitats and several moved among islands while foraging and were seen on beaches near each other.This suggests that diseased seals could infect healthy conspecifics throughout the MHI.