Traffic flow prediction is one of the basic, key problems with developing an intelligent transportation system since accurate and timely traffic flow prediction can provide information support and decision support for traffic control and guidance. However, due to the complex characteristics of traffic information, it is still a challenging task. This paper proposes a novel hybrid deep learning model for short-term traffic flow prediction by considering the inherent features of traffic data. The proposed model consists of three components: the recent, daily and weekly components. The recent component is integrated with an improved graph convolutional network (GCN) and bi-directional LSTM (Bi-LSTM). It is designed to capture spatiotemporal features. The remaining two components are built by multi-layer Bi-LSTM. They are developed to extract the periodic features. The proposed model focus on the important information by using an attention mechanism. We tested the performance of our model with a real-world traffic dataset and the experimental results indicate that our model has better prediction performance than those developed previously.
This paper proposes an accurate short-term prediction model of bike-sharing demand with the hybrid TCN-GRU method. The emergence of shared bicycles has provided people with a low-carbon, green and healthy way of transportation. However, the explosive growth and free-form development of bike-sharing has also brought about a series of problems in the area of urban governance, creating a new opportunity and challenge in the use of a large amount of historical data for regional bike-sharing traffic flow predictions. In this study, we built an accurate short-term prediction model of bike-sharing demand with the bike-sharing dataset from 2015 to 2017 in London. First, we conducted a multidimensional bike-sharing travel characteristics analysis based on explanatory variables such as weather, temperature, and humidity. This will help us to understand the travel characteristics of local people, will facilitate traffic management and, to a certain extent, improve traffic congestion. Then, the explanatory variables that help predict the demand for bike-sharing were obtained using the Granger causality with the entropy theory-based MIC method to verify each other. The Multivariate Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model were integrated to build the prediction model, and this is abbreviated as the TCN-GRU model. The fitted coefficient of determination R2 and explainable variance score (EVar) of the dataset reached 98.42% and 98.49%, respectively. Meanwhile, the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were at least 1.98% and 2.4% lower than those in other models. The results show that the TCN-GRU model has strong efficiency and robustness. The model can be used to make short-term accurate predictions of bike-sharing demand in the region, so as to provide decision support for intelligent dispatching and urban traffic safety improvement, which will help to promote the development of green and low-carbon mobility in the future.
Water is the source of life, and in recent years, with the progress in technology, water quality data have shown explosive growth; how to use the massive amounts of data for water quality prediction services has become a new opportunity and challenge. In this paper, we use the surface water quality data of an area in Beijing collected and compiled by Zhongguancun International Medical Laboratory Certification Co., Ltd. (Beijing, China). On this basis, we decompose the original water quality indicator data series into two series in terms of trend and fluctuation; for the characteristics of the decomposed series data, we use the traditional time series prediction method to model the trend term, introduce the deep learning method to interpret the fluctuation term, and fuse the final prediction results. Compared with other models, our proposed integrated Wavelet decomposition, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model, which is abbreviated as the W-ARIMA-GRU model, has better prediction accuracy, stability, and robustness for three conventional water quality indicators. At the same time, this paper uses the ensemble learning model LightGBM for the prediction of water quality evaluation level, and the accuracy and F1-score reached 97.5% and 97.8%, respectively, showing very strong performance. This paper establishes a set of effective water quality prediction frameworks that can be used for timely water quality prediction and to provide a theoretical model and scientific and reasonable analysis reference for the relevant departments for advanced control.
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