Purpose A blood transfusion after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is associated with an increase in complication and infection rates. However, no studies have been conducted to predict transfusion after TKA using a machine learning algorithm. The purpose of this study was to identify informative preoperative variables to create a machine learning model, and to provide a web‐based transfusion risk‐assessment system for clinical use. Methods This study retrospectively reviewed 1686 patients who underwent TKA at our institution. Data for 43 preoperative variables, including medication history, laboratory values, and demographic characteristics, were collected. Variable selection was conducted using the recursive feature elimination algorithm. The transfusion group was defined as patients with haemoglobin (Hb) < 7 g/dL after TKA. A predictive model was developed using the gradient boosting machine, and the performance of the model was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Data sets from an independent institution were tested with the model for external validation. Results Of the 1686 patients who underwent TKA, 108 (6.4%) were categorized into the transfusion group. Six preoperative variables were selected, including preoperative Hb, platelet count, type of surgery, tranexamic acid, age, and body weight. The predictive model demonstrated good predictive performance using the six variables [AUC 0.842; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.820–0.856]. Performance was also good according to the external validation using 400 data from an independent institution (AUC 0.880; 95% CI 0.844–0.910). This web‐based blood transfusion risk‐assessment system can be accessed at http://safetka.net. Conclusions A web‐based predictive model for transfusion after TKA using a machine learning algorithm was developed using six preoperative variables. The model is simple, has been validated, showed good performance, and can be used before TKA to predict the risk of transfusion and guide appropriate precautions for high‐risk patients. Level of evidence Diagnostic level II.

PurposeAcute kidney injury (AKI) is a deleterious complication after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The purposes of this study were to identify preoperative risk factors and develop a web‐based prediction model for postoperative AKI, and assess how AKI affected the progression to ESRD. MethodThe study included 5757 patients treated in three tertiary teaching hospitals. The model was developed using data on 5302 patients from two hospitals and externally validated in 455 patients from the third hospital. Eighteen preoperative variables were collected and feature selection was performed. A gradient boosting machine (GBM) was used to predict AKI. A tenfold‐stratified area under the curve (AUC) served as the metric for internal validation. Calibration was performed via isotonic regression and evaluated using a calibration plot. End‐stage renal disease (ESRD) was followed up for an average of 41.7 months. ResultsAKI develops in up to 10% of patients undergoing TKA, increasing the risk of progression to ESRD. The ESRD odds ratio of AKI patients (compared to non‐AKI patients) was 9.8 (95% confidence interval 4.3–22.4). Six key predictors of postoperative AKI were selected: higher preoperative levels of creatinine in serum, the use of general anesthesia, male sex, a higher ASA class (> 3), use of a renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system inhibitor, and no use of tranexamic acid (all p < 0.001). The predictive performance of our model was good (area under the curve 0.78 [95% CI 0.74–0.81] in the developmental cohort and improved in the external validation cohort (0.89). Our model can be accessed at https://safetka.net. ConclusionsA web‐based predictive model for AKI after TKA was developed using a machine‐learning algorithm featuring six preoperative variables. The model is simple and has been validated to improve both short‐ and long‐term prognoses of TKA patients. Postoperative AKI may lead to ESRD, which surgeons should strive to avoid. Level of evidenceDiagnostic level II.

Background Postoperative delirium is a challenging complication due to its adverse outcome such as long hospital stay. The aims of this study were: 1) to identify preoperative risk factors of postoperative delirium following knee arthroplasty, and 2) to develop a machine-learning prediction model. Method A total of 3,980 patients from two hospitals were included in this study. The model was developed and trained with 1,931 patients from one hospital and externally validated with 2,049 patients from another hospital. Twenty preoperative variables were collected using electronic hospital records. Feature selection was conducted using the sequential feature selection (SFS). Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithm (XGBoost) model as a machine-learning classifier was applied to predict delirium. A tenfold-stratified area under the curve (AUC) served as the metric for variable selection and internal validation. Results The incidence rate of delirium was 4.9% (n = 196). The following seven key predictors of postoperative delirium were selected: age, serum albumin, number of hypnotics and sedatives drugs taken preoperatively, total number of drugs (any kinds of oral medication) taken preoperatively, neurologic disorders, depression, and fall-down risk (all p < 0.05). The predictive performance of our model was good for the developmental cohort (AUC: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.77–0.84). It was also good for the external validation cohort (AUC: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.80–0.83). Our model can be accessed at https://safetka.connecteve.com. Conclusions A web-based predictive model for delirium after knee arthroplasty was developed using a machine-learning algorithm featuring seven preoperative variables. This model can be used only with information that can be obtained from pre-operative electronic hospital records. Thus, this model could be used to predict delirium before surgery and may assist physician’s effort on delirium prevention.

Background: Studies evaluating the natural history of femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) are limited. Purpose: To stratify the risk of progression to osteoarthritis (OA) in patients with FAI using an unsupervised machine-learning algorithm, compare the characteristics of each subgroup, and validate the reproducibility of staging. Study Design: Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2. Methods: A geographic database from the Rochester Epidemiology Project was used to identify patients with hip pain between 2000 and 2016. Medical charts were reviewed to obtain characteristic information, physical examination findings, and imaging details. The patient data were randomly split into 2 mutually exclusive sets: train set (70%) for model development and test set (30%) for validation. The data were transformed via Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection and were clustered using Hierarchical Density-based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise. Results: The study included 1071 patients with a mean follow-up period of 24.7 ± 12.5 years. The patients were clustered into 5 subgroups based on train set results: patients in cluster 1 were in their early 20s (20.9 ± 9.6 years), female dominant (84%), with low body mass index (<19 ); patients in cluster 2 were in their early 20s (22.9 ± 6.7 years), female dominant (95%), and pincer-type FAI (100%) dominant; patients in cluster 3 were in their mid 20s (26.4 ± 9.7) and were mixed-type FAI dominant (92%); patients in cluster 4 were in their early 30s (32.7 ± 7.8), with high body mass index (≥29 ), and diabetes (17%); and patients in cluster 5 were in their early 30s (30.0 ± 9.1), with a higher percentage of males (43%) compared with the other clusters and with limited internal rotation (14%). Mean survival for clusters 1 to 5 was 17.9 ± 0.6, 18.7 ± 0.3, 17.1 ± 0.4, 15.0 ± 0.5, and 15.6 ± 0.5 years, respectively, in the train set. The survival difference was significant between clusters 1 and 4 ( P = .02), 2 and 4 ( P < .005), 2 and 5 ( P = .01), and 3 and 4 ( P < .005) in the train set and between clusters 2 and 5 ( P = .03) and 3 and 4 ( P = .01) in the test set. Cluster characteristics and prognosis was well reproduced in the test set. Conclusion: Using the clustering algorithm, it was possible to determine the prognosis for OA progression in patients with FAI in the presence of conflicting risk factors acting in combination.

In this retrospective study, 10,000 anteroposterior (AP) radiography of the knee from a single institution was used to create medical data set that are more balanced and cheaper to create. Two types of convolutional networks were used, deep convolutional GAN (DCGAN) and Style GAN Adaptive Discriminator Augmentation (StyleGAN2-ADA). To verify the quality of generated images from StyleGAN2-ADA compared to real ones, the Visual Turing test was conducted by two computer vision experts, two orthopedic surgeons, and a musculoskeletal radiologist. For quantitative analysis, the Fréchet inception distance (FID), and principal component analysis (PCA) were used. Generated images reproduced the features of osteophytes, joint space narrowing, and sclerosis. Classification accuracy of the experts was 34%, 43%, 44%, 57%, and 50%. FID between the generated images and real ones was 2.96, which is significantly smaller than another medical data set (BreCaHAD = 15.1). PCA showed that no significant difference existed between the PCs of the real and generated images (p > 0.05). At least 2000 images were required to make reliable images optimally. By performing PCA in latent space, we were able to control the desired PC that show a progression of arthritis. Using a GAN, we were able to generate knee X-ray images that accurately reflected the characteristics of the arthritis progression stage, which neither human experts nor artificial intelligence could discern apart from the real images. In summary, our research opens up the potential to adopt a generative model to synthesize realistic anonymous images that can also solve data scarcity and class inequalities.