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The Bengal Florican is a 'Critically Endangered' bustard (Otididae) restricted to India, Nepal and southern Indochina. Fewer than 500 birds are estimated to remain in the Indian subcontinent, whilst the Indochinese breeding population is primarily restricted to grasslands surrounding the Tonle Sap lake, Cambodia. We conducted the first comprehensive breeding season survey of Bengal Florican within the Tonle Sap region (19,500 km2). During 2005/06 and 2006/07 we systematically sampled 1-km squares for territorial males. Bengal Florican were detected within 90 1-km squares at a mean density of 0.34 males km-2 which, accounting for unequal survey effort across grassland blocks, provides a mean estimate of 0.2 males km-2. Based on 2005 habitat extent, the estimated Tonle Sap population is 416 adult males (333 - 502 ± 95% CI), more than half of them in Kompong Thom province. Tonle Sap grasslands are rapidly being lost due to intensification of rice cultivation and, based on satellite images, we document declines of 28% grassland cover within 10 grassland blocks between January 2005 and March 2007. Based on mean 2005 population densities the remaining grassland may support as few as 294 adult male florican, a decline of 30% since 2005. In response to these habitat declines almost 350 km2 of grassland have been designated as protected areas, set aside for biodiversity and local livelihoods. Conservation activities in these areas include participatory land-use zoning, patrols reporting new developments to government officials, awareness-raising and incentive-led nest protection schemes

Predictive models can help clarify the distribution of poorly known species but should display strong transferability when applied to independent data. Nevertheless, model transferability for threatened tropical species is poorly studied. We built models predicting the incidence of the critically endangered Bengal Florican (Houbaropsis bengalensis) within the Tonle Sap (TLS) floodplain, Cambodia. Separate models were constructed with soil, land-use, and landscape data and species incidence sampled over the entire floodplain (12,000 km(2)) and from the Kompong Thom (KT) province (4000 km(2)). In each case, the probability of Bengal Florican presence within randomly selected 1 x 1 km squares was modeled by binary logistic regression with multimodel inference. We assessed the transferability of the KT model by comparing predictions with observed incidence elsewhere in the floodplain. In terms of standard model-validation statistics, the KT model showed good spatial transferability. Nevertheless, it overpredicted florican presence outside the KT calibration region, classifying 491 km(2) as suitable habitat compared with 237 km(2) predicted as suitable by the TLS model. This resulted from higher species incidence within the calibration region, probably owing to a program of conservation education and enforcement that has reduced persecution there. Because both research and conservation activity frequently focus on areas with higher density, such effects could be widespread, reducing transferability of predictive distribution models.

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