The four X-chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs), DXS9898, DXS6809, DXS7424 and DXS10011 were analyzed by single multiplex PCR in 150 male and 150 female Koreans. The loss of an allele at DXS9898 was observed in 13 out of 450 chromosomes (2.9%) and the PCR analysis showed that the X-chromosome with a null allele at DXS9898 has more than 1 kb deletion at the DXS9898 locus. Statistical analyses for these four X-STRs showed that they are highly informative for forensic application in Koreans. No linkage disequilibrium was observed among these four STRs and the previously reported five polymorphic STRs, HumARA, DXS101, GATA172D05, HPRTB and DXS8377 in Koreans. The test of homogeneity between allele frequencies revealed that there are some discrepancies in allele distributions between Koreans and Germans.
The 2004–2008 hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) saw several exceedances of what was regarded, prior to that period, as the 100-year significant wave heights (SWHs) that are used for the design of offshore oil and gas facilities. As a result, these facilities sustained considerable damage and disrupted U.S. energy supplies. The wave climatology in the GOM is therefore studied in detail. A 51-year database of SWHs was constructed by using a combination of wind and wave models, and both individual wave heights and statistical measures were validated, to the extent possible, using buoy data. Analyses of the modeled data show that there is an increasing trend in the annual maximum SWHs in the eastern part of the GOM; the maximum trend is approximately 5.6 cm/year, which is of the same magnitude as that reported for the U.S. west coast. The western part; on the other hand, shows a decreasing trend. The maximum estimated 100-year SWHs (denoted by SWH100) are 19.1 m, 22.6 m and 26.7 m for the Gumbel, Weibull, and the GEV distributions, respectively. The estimates obtained here using the Weibull distribution are comparable to those obtained independently by API (API—American Petroleum Institute, 2007, “Interim Guidance on Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico,” API Bulletin No. 2INT-MET). However, the use of objective criteria to identify the optimal distribution suggests that the GEV estimates are to be preferred if the engineer wishes to emphasize the upper tail where extremes are likely to occur. The maximum increase in the SWH100 due to the 2004–2008 season is of the order of 0.9 m to 2.7 m (depending as the distribution). Information generated here is intended to supplement the design recommendations provided by API (American Petroleum Institute, 2007, “Interim Guidance on Hurricane Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico,” API Bulletin No. 2INT-MET).
Parametric wind models are often used to reconstruct hurricane wind fields from a limited set of hurricane parameters. Application of the Rankine Vortex and other models used in forecasting Gulf of Mexico hurricanes show considerable differences between the resulting wind speeds and data. The differences are used to guide the development of adjustment factors to improve the wind fields resulting from the Rankine Vortex model. The corrected model shows a significant improvement in the shape, size, and wind speed contours for 14 out of 17 hurricanes examined. The effect on wave fields resulting from the original and modified wind fields are on the order of 4 m, which is important for the estimation of extreme wave statistics.
This paper describes the guidelines for preliminary workability analysis for offshore operation and planning using global wave persistence study. In offshore engineering, the weather information has to be studied to select the appropriate path for the project during the concept design, the detail design and the operation plan. The workability analysis is part of the weather study for various offshore operations and this study is used as a guide for the operation schedule, the selection of the operation method, the design of the equipment and the supporting structures. The detailed workability analysis is based on response based simulations which are only available after or during detail system design. On the other hand, preliminary workability can be calculated based on hindcast data with statistical methods before the detail design and this study can lead the project on the appropriate path at the beginning stages. The wave persistence analysis with thresholds on time and wave heights is used for the preliminary workability calculation and can also be used for route planning during offshore transportation. The objective of this paper is to provide global wave persistence analysis data to guide offshore operation and planning and makes the transition to workability with the required working wave period easier. For the global wave persistence analysis, the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis Reforecast (CFSRR) system data was used which has 35-year numerical wave hindcast. Data resolution is 0.5°×0.5° grid size with a temporal resolution of 3 hours for the period from 1979 to 2013, and this database covers most offshore locations except the Caspian Sea, and the North and South Pole areas. The persistence analysis was calculated with 0.5m, 1.0m, 1.5m and 2m wave thresholds, and each wave threshold is categorized as 24 hours, 48 hours and 72 hours persistency.
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