In this work we analyse the growth of the cumulative number of confirmed infected cases by the COVID-19 until March 27 th , 2020, from countries of Asia, Europe, North and South America. Our results show (i) that power-law growth is observed for all countries; (ii) by using the distance correlation, that the power-law curves between countries are statistically highly correlated, suggesting the universality of such curves around the World; and (iii) that soft quarantine strategies are inefficient to flatten the growth curves. Furthermore, we present a model and strategies which allow the government to reach the flattening of the power-law curves. We found that, besides the social distance of individuals, of well known relevance, the strategy of identifying and isolating infected individuals in a large daily rate, can help to flatten the power-laws. These are essentially the strategies used in the Republic of Korea. The high correlation between the power-law curves of different countries strongly indicate that the government containment measures can be applied with success around the whole World. These measures must be scathing and applied as soon as possible.
We claim that looking at probability distributions of finite time largest Lyapunov exponents, and more precisely studying their large deviation properties, yields an extremely powerful technique to get quantitative estimates of polynomial decay rates of time correlations and Poincaré recurrences in the -quite delicate-case of dynamical systems with weak chaotic properties.
This work analyzes the parameter space of a discrete ratchet model and gives direct connections between chaotic domains and a family of isoperiodic stable structures with the ratchet current. The isoperiodic structures, where larger currents are usually observed inside, appear along preferred direction in the parameter space giving a guide to follow the current. Currents in parameter space provide a direct measure of the momentum asymmetry of the multistable and chaotic attractors times the size of the corresponding basin of attraction. Transport structures are shown to exist in the parameter space of the Langevin equation with an external oscillating force.
The behavior of neurons can be modeled by the FitzHugh-Nagumo oscillator model, consisting of two nonlinear differential equations, which simulates the behavior of nerve impulse conduction through the neuronal membrane. In this work, we numerically study the dynamical behavior of two coupled FitzHugh-Nagumo oscillators. We consider unidirectional and bidirectional couplings, for which Lyapunov and isoperiodic diagrams were constructed calculating the Lyapunov exponents and the number of the local maxima of a variable in one period interval of the time-series, respectively. By numerical continuation method the bifurcation curves are also obtained for both couplings. The dynamics of the networks here investigated are presented in terms of the variation between the coupling strength of the oscillators and other parameters of the system. For the network of two oscillators unidirectionally coupled, the results show the existence of Arnold tongues, self-organized sequentially in a branch of a Stern-Brocot tree and by the bifurcation curves it became evident the connection between these Arnold tongues with other periodic structures in Lyapunov diagrams. That system also present multistability shown in the planes of the basin of attractions.
Stable periodic structures containing optimal ratchet transport, recently found in the parameter space dissipation versus ratchet parameter by [A. Celestino et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 234101 (2011)], are shown to be resistant to reasonable temperatures, reinforcing the expectation that they are essential to explain the optimal ratchet transport in nature. Critical temperatures for their destruction, valid from the overdamping to close to the conservative limits, are obtained numerically and shown to be connected to the current efficiency, given here analytically. A region where thermal activation of the rachet current takes place is also found, and its underlying mechanism is unveiled. Results are demonstrated for a discrete ratchet model and generalized to the Langevin equation with an additional external oscillating force.
Highlights
Modeling the epidemic trends for COVID-19 is essential to take effective containment measures.
We show that time is one of the most important weapons we have in the battle against the COVID-19.
To keep the social distance and to isolate asymptomatic individuals are efficient measures to flatten the epidemic curve.
Our results show that nonpharmacological strategies must be applied as soon as possible.
The emergence of chaotic motion is discussed for hard-point like and soft collisions between two particles in a one-dimensional box. It is known that ergodicity may be obtained in hard-point like collisions for specific mass ratios gamma=m(2)/m(1) of the two particles and that Lyapunov exponents are zero. However, if a Yukawa interaction between the particles is introduced, we show analytically that positive Lyapunov exponents are generated due to double collisions close to the walls. While the largest finite-time Lyapunov exponent changes smoothly with gamma , the number of occurrences of the most probable one, extracted from the distribution of finite-time Lyapunov exponents over initial conditions, reveals details about the phase-space dynamics. In particular, the influence of the integrable and pseudointegrable dynamics without Yukawa interaction for specific mass ratios can be clearly identified and demonstrates the sensitivity of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents as a phase-space probe. Being not restricted to two-dimensional problems such as Poincaré sections, the number of occurrences of the most probable Lyapunov exponents suggests itself as a suitable tool to characterize phase-space dynamics in higher dimensions. This is shown for the problem of two interacting particles in a circular billiard.
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