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In the literature, fuzzy time series forecasting models generally include fuzzy lagged variables. Thus, these fuzzy time series models have only autoregressive structure. Using such fuzzy time series models can cause modeling error and bad forecasting performance like in conventional time series analysis. To overcome these problems, a new first-order fuzzy time series which forecasting approach including both autoregressive and moving average structures is proposed in this study. Also, the proposed model is a time invariant model and based on particle swarm optimization heuristic. To show the applicability of the proposed approach, some methods were applied to five time series which were also forecasted using the proposed method. Then, the obtained results were compared to those obtained from other methods available in the literature. It was observed that the most accurate forecast was obtained when the proposed approach was employed.

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PurposeThe objective of the present study was to compare different off-midline techniques in terms of their advantages and disadvantages.MethodsA total of 81 patients were included in this prospective, controlled, randomized study. Patients in group 1 were treated with the Limberg flap, and patients in group 2 were treated with Mutaf technique. Patients were followed up for 9 months postsurgically and assessed at regular intervals.ResultsA total of 41 and 40 patients received surgical treatment with Limberg or Mutaf techniques, respectively. The 2 groups were similar in terms of age, gender, body mass index, and Tezel pilonidal sinus classification. Also, the 2 groups were comparable with regard to the frequency of preoperative discharge from the wound site, history of abscess formation, and the resultant antibiotic use. Early results showed similar recurrence rates and surgical-site complications between the 2 groups. Although a lower visual analogue scale score was found in group 2 at postoperative day 1, seroma persistence, time to withdrawal of surgical drains, and wound healing were more prolonged.ConclusionIn this study, Mutaf technique was comparable to Limberg flap in the treatment of pilonidal sinus. Therefore, Mutaf technique may be offered as a viable surgical therapeutic option among off-midline closure approaches.

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne disease endemic in Turkey since 2002. Çorum is one of the leading five cities in Turkey in which CCHF disease is seen most. We studied characteristics of the patients with tick bites in our emergency department (ED) and determined the fatality rate of the disease in city of Çorum for the first time. We retrospectively analysed the characteristics of the patients admitted to our ED from the medical files of 21,680 patients in a 5-year period. The number of patients with definite diagnosis and who have died was determined. Our results demonstrated that the fatality rate of CCHF in Çorum is 6.78%. Among 21,680 patients, blood samples of 970 patients were sent to an advanced centre in Ankara for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. Results of 560 patients were reported to be PCR (+) and 38 of them have died.